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Invest 93-L

A Developing Tropical Wave

Updated:

Monday, July 2811:25amIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is 1 area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.Invest 93-L (Tropical Wave)A broad area of Low Pressure is located about 600 miles Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is producing a large area of shower thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is associated with a Tropical Wave (embedded in the Monsoon trof) and has continued to slowly develop during the past 12 hours. It is now beg... More>>

Tropics Remain Quiet

Updated:

Thursday, July 245:00pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There are a few Tropical Waves on the board. However none of the active waves are producing significant convection or organization.I am still watching the remnants of T.D. Two as they make their way through the Eastern Caribbean There is an elongated area of low pressure and scattered convection that continues to move to the West at 15-20mph. However, I am not expe... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 23, 2014

Updated:

Today is Day #53 of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season.Tropical Depression #2 has weakened into a tropical wave about 365 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. This remnant is moving westward at 25 mph and should move through the Lesser Antilles this evening. Conditions will remain unfavorable for this system to re-strengthen during the next several days.Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic, there are no systems that threaten tropical cyclone formation over the next five days.Looki... More>>

Remnants of T.D. TWO

Updated:

Wednesday, July 2311:00am There is One area of interest in the Atlantic Basin.Two (Remnants of)A remnant low pressure area is about 365 miles ESE of the LessAntilleslle and centered at 14.0N 56.0W with Max sustained winds of 35mph and a Min central pressure of 1012mb (29.88'"). This system is moving West (275) at about 25mph.Watches/Warnings:NONESatellite imagery shows a large area of scattered deep convection that is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Two. These scattered s... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 22, 2014

Updated:

Tropical Depression #2 continues in the Atlantic about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. TD #2 is moving toward the west at 18 mph and the maximum sustained wind remains near 35 miles. TD #2 is expected to continue a west or west-northwest motion during the next two or three days and may weaken as dry air and wind shear create an unfavorable environment for the system.Elsewhere, the Tropical Atlantic is inactive and no new tropical cyclones are expected through Friday.Tom Konvicka More>>

Tropical Depression Two Continues Toward The Caribbean

Updated:

Tuesday, July 2211:00am There is One area of interest in the Atlantic Basin.Two (Tropical Depression)Tropical Depression Two is about 910 miles East of the Lesser Antilles and centered at 12.6N 48.0W with Max sustained winds of 35mph and a Min central pressure of 1012mb (29.88'"). This system is moving West (280) at about 17mph.Watches/Warnings:NONEMelissa is still classified as a Tropical Depression, this morning.Satellite imagery shows a large area of deep convection in a band to the West ... More>>

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2

Updated:

Former Invest 92L has intensified into Tropical Depression #2. The depression is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Movement is toward the west at 16 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 35 mph.A general west or west-northwest motion is expected during the next several days. Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday; however, the depression may move into a less favorable environment and weaken by late week.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone f... More>>

UPDATE: Invest 92- Increased Activity in the Tropics

Updated:

Monday, July 211:00pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is 1 area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.An area of Low Pressure is located about 1250 miles East of the Lesser Antilles and is producing an area of shower thunderstorms. This area has continued to develop during the past 12 hours. Satellite data Surface obs. indicate that the circulation has become better defined and this system is producing a small area where winds are becomin... More>>

Development in the Atlantic Ocean

Updated:

Monday, July 219:45amIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is 1 area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours. A broad area of Low Pressure is located about 1200 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving WNW at 15-20mph. This system is in the middle of the Tropical- Atlantic Ocean. There is some development in this area as shear decreases and wind speeds are picking up. Furthermore, some rotation is being detected. This means that the piece... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 18, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin continues to be inactive today with no notable weather systems and tropical cyclone formation is not expected this weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY JULY 17, 2014

Updated:

We are now in the forty-seventh day of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and things continue to be inactive. However, one tropical wave that just emerged off the west coast of Africa is accompanied by a significant amount of convection. Conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 16, 2014

Updated:

Once again, the Tropics are quiet today. There are no weather systems being monitored for development because dry air and unfavorable winds aloft continue to inhibit any formation of a tropical cyclone. I do not expect anything to develop through this weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY JULY 15, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains inactive today and no name storms are expected this week. Dry air and unfavorable winds aloft continue to inhibit tropical cyclone formation.Tom Konvicka More>>

Tropical Update 7-15

Updated:

Tuesday, July 158:00amIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There are a few Tropical Waves on the board. However none of the active waves are producing significant convection or organization.For a continued look into the tropics and preparedness tips, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.http://www.kalb.com/category/187198/hurricane-centerMeteorologist Dorrell Wenninger More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 14, 2014

Updated:

Today is day number 44 of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and I see nothing that concerns me. In fact, tropical storm formation is not expected this week. Dry and and an unfavorable vertical wind profile continue to shut down the action.Tom Konvicka More>>

Tropical Update for 07/10

Updated:

Thursday, July 10th5:30pm In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development within the next five days.DISCUSSIONA few tropical waves are located across the Caribbean Sea that we will monitor over the next few days, but wind shear is too high to allow for development. Strong east winds could create rough seas across the Caribbean Sea with the roughest conditions occuring north of Panama. Winds and seas should be calm across the Gulf of Mexico with high pressu... More>>

Eyes On The Tropics

Updated:

Wednesday, July 96:00pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There is a Gale Warning in effect for parts of the South-Central Caribbean Sea (near Colombia). However, there is very little convection at all in the same area, showing up on satellite imagery. There are a few light Disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico that are not expected to pick up in development during the forecast.Otherwise, a couple other Tropical Waves are no... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: JULY 8, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet today and tropical cyclone formation is not expected this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

Tom's Tropical Update: July 7, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin is quiet now since the demise of Hurricane Arthur. Models are not predicting tropical cyclone development this week.Tom Monica More>>

HURRICANE ARTHUR UPDATE: JULY 4, 2014

Updated:

Hurricane Arthur is located about 170 miles SSW of Chatham, Massachusetts. Movement is toward the northeast at near 25 mph. The maximum sustained wind is down to 80 mph.Arthur is expected to continue moving northeast through Saturday. This track will take the center of Arthur to the southeast of New England and over western Nova Scotia Saturday, and then to the Gulf of St. Lawrence Saturday night.Arthur should continue to weaken as the storm moves over cooler water and interacts with a trough... More>>

HURRICANE ARTHUR UPDATE: JULY 3, 2014

Updated:

Arthur is now a hurricane! And it's early for that feat; the average date of the first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin is August 10. Thus, 2014 brought the first hurricane about five weeks earlier than usual.As of this writing, Hurricane Arthur is located about 35 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. Movement is toward the NNE at 13 mph. The maximum sustained winds are up to 90 mph.Arthur is expected to turn more to the northeast with an increase in forward speed tonight. An even faster ... More>>

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR UPDATE: JULY 2, 2014

Updated:

Tropical Storm Arthur is located about 220 miles SSE of Charleston, South Carolina. Movement is north at near 7 mph. The maximum sustained winds are up to 70 mph.Arthur is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane tonight or Thursday. Arthur is also expected to turn toward the north-northeast by Thursday followed by a northeastward motion. This has prompted a Hurricane Warning for Surf City northward to Duck, Pamlico Sound, and eastern Albemarle Sound.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR UPDATE-JULY 1, 2014

Updated:

Folks, we have the first named tropical cyclone of the 2014 hurricane season.Tropical Storm Arthur is located about 85 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral, Florida. There has been a NW drift in the storm's motion today. The maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph.Arthur is expected to to the north and then to the northeast over the next couple of days in response to a trough in the jet stream that is digging through the Midwest. On this track, the western side of Arthur my brush the coast of the Car... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY DAY #30

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin is quiet except for off the east coast of Florida.A center of low pressure with accompanying convection is located about 110 miles east of Melbourne, Florida. This system has been designated 91-L. Movement is slowly toward the southwest. Maximum sustained winds are already up to 30-35 mph. However, the convective pattern lacks the organization needed to qualify as a tropical cyclone.I expect 91-L to intensify and become the first tropical cyclone of the year. In fact, 91-L ... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE DAY #27

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet today and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the weekend.Next week, however, things may get a bit more interesting. A weak surface low is located over South Carolina and it is expected to migrate out into the open waters of the Atlantic off the southeastern coast by early next week. The European model indicates possible intensification of this low by the middle of next week. Stay tuned!Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY #26

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet today and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the weekend. Next week, however, some of our computer models are indicating an area of low pressure may form off the cost of the southeastern U.S. next week.Tom Konvicka More>>

No Active Tropical Cyclones

Updated:

Wednesday, June 255:00pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There is a Gale Warning in effect for parts of the South-Central Caribbean Sea (near Colombia) that are associated with a Tropical Wave that we are monitoring. This Tropical Wave in the South-Central Caribbean is not becoming very organized and is remaining elongated in an area of increased shear. No deep convection or organization is present and this upper-level ... More>>

No Activity In The Tropics

Updated:

Tuesday, June 246:00pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There is a Gale Warning in effect for parts of the Caribbean Sea that are associated with a Tropical Wave that we are monitoring. This Tropical Wave in the South-Central Caribbean is not becoming very organized and is remaining elongated in an area of increased shear. This upper-level shear is creating an environment that is not conducive for development.Nevertheles... More>>

Tropics Remain Quiet

Updated:

Monday, June 235:30pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.For a continued look into the tropics and preparedness tips, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.http://www.kalb.com/category/187198/hurricane-centerMeteorologist Dorrell Wenninger More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY JUNE 23, 2014

Updated:

It is the twenty third day of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season yet conditions remain inactive. I do not expect tropical cyclone development this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY DAY #20

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin is a bit more active than in previous days; however, there are no legitimate threats for tropical cyclone development.A weak area of surface low pressure is located about 80 miles ENE of Daytona Beach, Florida. Movement is slowly northward. Conditions are not favorable for development.Weak tropical waves are located in the eastern Caribbean Sea and in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean. Neither feature shows any signs of organization.Tom Konvicka More>>

THE TROPICS-DAY #13

Updated:

It is Day #13 of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and there are no features that threaten tropical storm formation through the weekend.In the eastern Pacific, Cristina is approaching Socorro Island as a Category I hurricane. Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY: JUNE 12, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains inactive today and tropical storm formation is not expected through this weekend.Category IV Hurricane Cristina continues about 270 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. The maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph. Cristina is expected to continue moving WNW or NW and will stay away from land.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK-JUNE 9, 2014

Updated:

The Tropics are quiet today as the surface trade winds are well-established and high-level winds of 20-30 knots remain common from the Gulf of Mexico eastward through the North Atlantic Ocean. Thus, tropical cyclone formation is not expected this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

2014 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON-DAY #3

Updated:

We are already into the third day of the 2014 hurricane season. A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing cloudiness and convection over much of the southern Gulf of Mexico. The trough is nearly stationary and is causing strong winds aloft, which will limit the chance for tropical cyclone formation this week.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, the weather is quiet.Tom Konvicka More>>

2014 HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTIONS

Updated:

Since Colorado State University started doing tropical outlooks over 30 years ago, it seems like just about everyone has a prediction now. This blog offers a summary of legitimate predictions from a variety More>>

2014 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON-DAY #2

Updated:

A surface trough is located over the western Gulf of Mexico from 25N and 95Wto the Bay of Campeche. An upper-level low is centered over the northwest Gulf near 26N and 93W.These features are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms, but high-level shear from the upper low will inhibit organized convection.I do not expect a named storm to develop this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

THE 2014 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON-DAY #1

Updated:

Welcome to the first tropical blog brought to you by the meteorologists inthe First Alert Storm Center. On Day #1, we have a trough of low pressure at the surface over the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature has shown very little movement during the past six hours. An upper-level circulation aloft is located east of Brownsville near 24N and 93W. The interaction between this feature and the surface trough is triggering cloudiness and convection. Conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclo... More>>

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