Hurricane Center Blog - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

Tuesday's Tropical Blog (9/16)

A Major Hurricane Develops in the Atlantic Ocean

Updated:

Tuesday, September 1610:15amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Edouard (Cat 3 Hurricane)The Center of Edouard is located about 420 miles East of Bermuda and is centered at 31.1N 57.8W with Maximum sustained winds of 115mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 955mb (28.20"). This system is moving NNW (345) at 13mph.Watches/Warnings:There are no current watches or warnings associated with this system.Hurricane Edouard has been upgraded to a Category 3 Storm. That makes the Tropi... More>>

Monday's Tropical Blog (9/15)

Cat 2 Hurricane Edouard in the Atlantic

Updated:

Monday, September 1511:15amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Edouard (Cat 2 Hurricane)The Center of Edouard is located about 655 miles ESE of Bermuda and is centered at 27.3N 55.5W with Maximum sustained winds of 105mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 966mb (28.53"). This system is moving NW (305) at 14mph.Watches/Warnings:There are no current watches or warnings associated with this system.Satellite Radar data analysis shows that Hurricane Edouard is becoming more organ... More>>

DISTURBANCE 93-L UPDATE SEPTEMBER 12, 2014

Updated:

A tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands has been designated as Disturbance 93-L. This system shows signs of organization but development will be slow to occur. Movement toward the west or the west-northwest is expected during the next several days.Tom Konvicka More>>

DISTURBANCE 92-L UPDATE SEPTEMBER 12, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 92-L is a broad area of surface low pressure located to the west of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. Movement is toward the west-southwest. The system remains disorganized because of 25 knots of north-northeasterly shear and some dry air to the north of the center.92-L is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday. The water temperatures are very warm and favorable for tropical development; however, the shear will continue, and this should limit intensity.To... More>>

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD UPDATE SEPTEMBER 12, 2014

Updated:

Tropical Storm Edouard is located about 1245 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Movement is toward the northwest at near 13 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 45 mph.Edouard is expected to continue moving to the northwest and will likely intensify. Longer-term forecasts recurve Edouard away from the U.S. East Coast.Tom Konvicka More>>

Friday's Tropical Blog (9/12)

Tropical Disturbance Moving Across Florida and Over the NW GoM

Updated:

Friday, September 12 More>>

DISTURBANCE 92-L UPDATE SEPTEMBER 11, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 92-L continues near the northwestern Bahamas. Movement is slowly toward the west. Clouds and convection became more concentrated today and the circulation at the surface is better defined now than it was on Wednesday.Disturbance 92-L should continue moving slowly westward over the next couple of days. This track will take 92-L across southern Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In the near-term, the intensity of 92-L will be limited by 20-25 knots of northeasterly shear. ... More>>

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #6 UPDATE SEPTEMBER 11, 2014

Updated:

Former disturbance 91-L is now Tropical Depression #6. The system is located about 940 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Movement is toward the northwest at 15 mph. The maximum sustained wind is 35 mph.A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Conditions favor strengthening and TD #6 may become a tropical storm tonight or Friday.At present, TD #6 is not a threat to any populated land area.Tom Konvicka More>>

Thursday's Tropical Blog (9/11)

Two Active Disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean

Updated:

Thursday, September 119:15amIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there are Two areas that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.Invest 92-L (Tropical Wave in the West Atlantic)A Tropical disturbance that is near the Northwestern Bahamas is associated with a Tropical Wave. A broad area of Low Pressure contains poorly organized area cluster of Shower Thunderstorm activity. a Previously scheduled Hurricane Hunter mission has been canceled (for today). Upper... More>>

DISTURBANCE 92-L UPDATE SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 92-L is associated with a weak trough of surface low pressure over the Bahamas. Clouds and convection produced by 92-L remains disorganized. Movement is toward the west at 5-10 mph.This system is expected to continue moving slowly westward with little or no development.Tom Konvicka More>>

DISTURBANCE 91-L UPDATE SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 91-L continues about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. This system remains disorganized as it moves toward the west-northwest at near 15 mph.The system is predicted to continue on a west-northwest to northwest course during the next several days. Conditions favor strengthening by the weekend. At this point, long-range computer models keep 91-L over the open Atlantic Ocean away from the U.S. East Coast.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE SEPTEMBER 9, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 91-L continues a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Clouds, convection, and a broad area of surface low pressure accompany the system. Movement is toward the west-northwest at near 15 mph. The system has changed little today, but conditions favor gradual development.An area of convection and clouds is located just east of the central and southeastern Bahamas. This system is associated with a weak trough of low pressure at the surface. Movement is toward the wes... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPTEMBER 8, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin is generally inactive today, except for a system in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.A broad area of surface low pressure, accompanied by a large area of clouds and convection, is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Movement is toward the west-northwest at near 15 mph. This system has been designated 91-L.Disturbance 91-L is expected to continue on a west-northwest course during the next several days. Conditions favor gradual development.Tom... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE SEPTEMBER 5, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains inactive today except for disturbance 90-L located just to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Movement is toward the west at 15 mph.This system should continue moving toward the west during the next several days. Little, if any, strengthening is expected because of dry air and sinking motion in the atmosphere.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated through the weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

Tropical Blog (Friday 9/5)

East Atlantic Tropical Wave Developing

Updated:

Friday, September 5 10:00amIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There are is one Tropical Wave that I am watching for possible development.1) Tropical Wave (East Atlantic)Disorganized shower thunderstorm activity continues to develop. This disturbance is associated with a Tropical Wave that has moved off of the West Coast of Africa and is located just South of the Cape Verde Islands.This elongated area of low pressure cont... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE SEPTEMBER 4, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin is quiet for the most part today. The exception is in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about several hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This system has been given the designation 90-L and consists of a broad area of surface low pressure. Movement is toward the west at near 15 mph.Disturbance 90-L is expected to continue on a west or a west-northwest track during the next several days. Only slow strengthening is anticipated.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin,... More>>

Tropical Blog (9/4)

Future Tropical Development In The E. Atlantic

Updated:

Thursday, September 4 More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE SEPTEMBER 3, 2014

Updated:

Former Tropical Storm Dolly is inland over eastern Mexico and has weakened to a remnant low pressure center. This will be the last statement issued on Dolly.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave will move off the wet coast of Africa Thursday. This wave is expected to move toward the west at near 15 mph during the next several days. Tropical cyclone development is possible with this system through the weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INLAND IN MEXICO

Updated:

Former Tropical Storm Dolly is now just a remnant center of low pressure about 90 miles west-southwest of Tampico, Mexico. Movement continues toward the west at 8 mph.Flash flooding and mudslides are the main threats as Dolly transitions from a tropical storm to a heavy rain producing system. Peak rainfall totals may reach 15-20 inches over portions of Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, northern Veracruz, and eastern San Luis Potosi.Tom Konvicka More>>

Tropical Blog (9/3)

Dolly Dissipates Over Mexico

Updated:

Wednesday, September 310:15amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Dolly (Remnants)The Center of Dolly located 90 miles WSW of Tampico, Mexico and is centered at 21.7N 99.2W with Maximum sustained winds of 30mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 1005mb (29.68"). This system is moving West (260) at 13mph.Watches/Warnings:There are no current watches or warnings associated with this system.There is still shower thunderstorm activity associated with some disorganized, deep convec... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY SEPTEMBER 2, 2014

Updated:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of western Africa late Thursday. Conditions favor development through the weekend as the system moves westward at near 15 mph.Other than Tropical Storm Dolly, there are no other systems being monitored for tropical cyclone formation.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2, 2014

Updated:

Tropical Storm Dolly is located in the western Gulf of Mexico about 60 miles ESE of Tampico, Mexico. Movement is toward the west at 12 mph. The maximum sustained wind is 45 mph.Dolly is projected to continue a westerly course, which will bring the center of the storm inland over Mexico this evening or tonight. The system will weaken once it travels inland.The main threat Dolly brings to Mexico is heavy rain. Peak totals of 15 inches are expected across much of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon as wel... More>>

Tropical Blog 9/2

T.S. Dolly Moving Across The Gulf Of Mexico

Updated:

Tuesday, September 210:45amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Dolly (Tropical Storm)The Center of Dolly located 85 miles ESE of LA Pesca, Mexico and is centered at 23.4N 96.5W with Maximum sustained winds of 50mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 1005mb (29.68"). This system is moving WNW (300) at 16mph.Watches/Warnings:There are no current watches or warnings in the United States, associated with this system.There is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the coastline fro... More>>

Invest 99-L (Tropical Blog 9-1)

Developing Tropical Wave over the Southern Gulf of Mexico

Updated:

Monday, September 19:47amIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is One area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.Invest 99-L (Tropical Wave)A Tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula Eastern Bay of Campeche is producinga lot of shower thunderstorm and is associated with a Tropical Wave. This system continues to show limited development as it moves over the warm water of the Southern GoM. Environmental conditions are favorable for develo... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE AUGUST 29, 2014

Updated:

It is the 90th day of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and there remain a few items of interest.Former Hurricane Cristobal is now a post-tropical system located about 300 miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Movement is to the northeast at near 45 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 75 mph. The storm is expected to merge with another storm system over the North Atlantic this weekend and continue moving to the northeast.A tropical wave, the remnant of former disturbance... More>>

Tropical Blog Fri (8/29)

4 Areas of Interest In The Tropics

Updated:

Friday, August 2910:30amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Cristobal (Post-Tropical Cyclone)The Center of Cristobal is last located 545 miles SSW of Halifax, Nova Scotia and is centered at 45.5N 47.1W with Maximum sustained winds of 75mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 980mb (28.94"). This system is moving NE (055) at 44mph.Watches/Warnings:There are no current watches or warnings associated with this system..Satellite Radar analysis reveals that Cristobal has completed ... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE AUGUST 28, 2014

Updated:

In addition to Hurricane Cristobal and disturbance 98-L, two other systems are being monitored in the Atlantic Basin. The first is the remnant of former disturbance 97-L in the eastern Caribbean. This is a tropical wave which is producing disorganized clouds and convection. Conditions are not favorable for development in the short-term, but some development potential exists during the latter part of the weekend into early next week over the Bay of Campeche.The second system is a strong tropic... More>>

DISTURBANCE 98-L UPDATE AUGUST 28, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 98-L continues to move toward the west-southwest and will move inland near Brownsville, Texas tonight. Little or no development is expected since this system is too close to land. 98-L should bring some welcome rain to the drought-parched region of south Texas over the next few days.Tom Konvicka More>>

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL UPDATE AUGUST 28, 2014

Updated:

Hurricane Cristobal remains alive in the North Atlantic about 435 miles SSE of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Movement is toward the east-northeast near 35 mph. The maximum sustained wind is 80 mph.Cristobal is expected to continue moving toward the east-northeast and accelerate during the next two days. Little change in strength is expected and Cristobal will transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday.Swells generated by Cristobal are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast from the... More>>

Invest 98-L Tropical Blog (Thursday 8/28)

One Hurricane & Two Disturbances Active in the Tropics

Updated:

Thursday, August 2811:00amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Cristobal (Cat 1 Hurricane)The Center of Hurricane Cristobal was last located 545 miles SSW of Halifax, Nova Scotia and is centered at 36.9N 65.9W with Maximum sustained winds of 75mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 983mb (29.03"). This system is moving NE (050) at 26mph.Watches/Warnings:There are no current watches or warnings associated with this system..Satellite Radar analysis reveals that this hurricane co... More>>

GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE UPDATE

Updated:

A weak area of surface low pressure continues in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. This system has been designated 98-L. Movement is slowly toward the west-southwest. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated this system and found no well-defined low-level circulation. Disturbance 98-L is expected to continue moving west or southwest and move inland over south Texas or Mexico on Thursday.Tom Konvicka More>>

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL UPDATE

Updated:

Hurricane Cristobal is passing between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and Bermuda. Specifically, Cristobal is about 385 miles west of Bermuda and 290 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. Movement is toward the north-northeast at 15 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 75 mph.Cristobal is projected to turn toward the northeast and speed up tonight and Thursday. Some strengthening is possible tonight or Thursday and Cristobal should make the transition to an extratropical storm by Friday night.S... More>>

Tropical Blog Wed. 8-27

Tropics Remain Active With Cat 1. Cristobal

Updated:

Wednesday, August 27 11:15amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Cristobal (Cat 1 Hurricane)The Center of Hurricane Cristobal was last located 435miles West of Bermuda and 300miles SE of Cape Hatteras centered at 31.8N 72.2W with Maximum sustained winds of 80mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 983mb (29.03). This system is moving North (355) at 12mph.Watches/Warnings:There is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the Bermuda.Satellite Radar analysis reveals that this storm h... More>>

GULF DISTURBANCE-SPECIAL DISCUSSION

Updated:

Disorganized cloudiness and convection continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This weather is associated with a weak disturbance aloft and a trough of low pressure at the surface. Movement is slowly toward the west and west-southwest. A large area of dry air is located on the south side of this system and upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development.Tom Konvicka More>>

DISTURBANCE 97-L UPDATE

Updated:

Disturbance 97-L continues in the Atlantic Ocean about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and convection accompanies this system.This system is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest and there is only a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL UPDATE

Updated:

Hurricane Cristobal is located about 460 miles WSW of Bermuda. Movement is toward the north at 15 mph. The maximum sustained wind remains near 75 mph.Cristobal is expected to continue moving north or north-northeast through Wednesday. The storm is expected to accelerate toward the northeast by Thursday. Some strengthening is likely tonight or Wednesday. Cristobal will remain well off the East Coast of the United States; however, heavy surf and rip currents will affect all of the Atlantic Seab... More>>

Tropical Blog 8/26

Tropics Remain Very Active To Include Cat 1 Hurricane Cristobal

Updated:

Tuesday, August 2610:38amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Cristobal (Cat 1 Hurricane)The Center of Hurricane Cristobal was last located 545 miles SW of Bermuda and centered at 27.2N 71.7W with Maximum sustained winds of 75mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 988mb (29.18). This system is moving North (010) at 12mph.Watches/Warnings:There is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the Bermuda.Satellite Radar analysis reveals that this storm has continued to develop during th... More>>

DISTURBANCE 97-L UPDATE

Updated:

A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles remains disorganized but has earned the designation 97-L. This system is moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This general motion is expected to continue this week and conditions may become more favorable for development in the late-week time frame.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL UPDATE

Updated:

Tropical Storm Cristobal is located about 670 miles southwest of Bermuda. Movement is toward the north-northeast at near 5 mph. The maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph.Cristobal is expected to continue moving toward the north-northeast through tonight. A turn more toward the northeast is predicted by Tuesday. A slight increase in forward speed will also occur. Gradual strengthening is expected and Cristobal may become a hurricane on Wednesday.Cristobal is not a threat to the United Sta... More>>

Tropical Blog Mon 8/25

Three Areas of Interest To Include T.S. Cristobal

Updated:

Monday, August 25 11:21amThere is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.Cristobal (Tropical Storm)The Center of T.S. Cristobal was last located 120 miles ENE of San Salvador 715 miles SW of Bermuda and centered at 24.6N 72.7W with Maximum sustained winds of 60mph and a Minimum Central Pressure of 993 mb (29.33). This system is moving NE (015) at 2 mph.Watches/Warnings:There is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the Central Bahamas..Satellite Radar analysis reveals that this storm ... More>>

Invest 96-L (8-21)

Tropical Area of Interest is Approaching the Caribbean Islands

Updated:

Thursday, August 217:35pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is One area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.Invest 96-L (Tropical Wave)Shower Thunderstorm activity is abundantly found across an elongated area of low pressure. This Low is around a Tropical Wave that is located 275 miles West of the Lesser Antilles and continues to approach the Leeward Islands.During the next 48 hours, environmental conditions will improve and become more fa... More>>

Invest 96-L (8/20)

Tropical Development Expected in the Western Atlantic Ocean

Updated:

Wednesday, August 208:45pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is One area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.Invest 96-L (Tropical Wave)An elongated area of low pressure is associated with a Tropical Wave and continues to produce moderate (and scattered, strong) thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is located about 500 miles East of the Windward Islands and Lesser Antilles. There is some development that is organizing with this system. T... More>>

Invest 96-L

3 Active Tropical Waves In The Atlantic Basin

Updated:

Tuesday, August 198:00pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There are a couple of Tropical Waves on the board. However none of the active waves are producing significant convection or organization.1) Invest 96-L (Western Atlantic Tropical Wave)Disorganized shower thunderstorm activity continues to develop. This disturbance is associated with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from the Northeastern coast of Sou... More>>

Tropical Update (8-18)

Updated:

Monday, August 186:10pmIn the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are not expecting any development during the next 5 days.There are a couple of Tropical Waves on the board. However none of the active waves are producing significant convection or organization.1) Atlantic (Tropical Wave)There is a tropical wave over the mid Atlantic Ocean and centered about 1000 miles East of the Lesser Antilles that contains shower thunderstorm activity associated with a weak elongated area of low pr... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 15, 2014

Updated:

An area of low pressure accompanies a tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. This system will be moving into dry air and this is not favorable for development.A second tropical wave is located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Development of this wave is also being inhibited by dry air.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 14, 2014

Updated:

The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet today.Typically by August 14, three tropical storms and one hurricane have occurred. This year, two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) both became hurricanes. The average date for the fourth named storm is August 23. In general, 2014 has been nearly average.None of our reliable forecast models hint at tropical cyclone formation through the weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 13, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains inactive today. Disturbance 94-L has not shown any signs of re-development but I will continue to watch it.The typical August train of tropical waves is established in the Atlantic Ocean but dry air is preventing development at this time.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through this weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 12, 2014

Updated:

Today is the seventy-third day of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season. Disturbance 94-L has weakened in the eastern Atlantic but will be monitored for redevelopment.Elsewhere, the Tropical Atlantic is inactive and tropical cyclone formation is not expected this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 11, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 94-L is alive now in the far eastern Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Movement is toward the west at 15-20 mph. Disturbance 94-L should continue a west to west-northwest movement for the next several days. Slow strengthening, if any, is expected.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are no threats for tropical cyclone formation.Tom Konvicka More>>

HURRICANE JULIO CHURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST

Updated:

Hurricane Julio is located about 960 miles east of Honolulu, Hawaii. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 16 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 105 mph.Julio is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest through the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecasted during the next two days.Interests in the Hawaiian Islands are being advised to monitor Hurricane Julio.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE UPDATE

Updated:

Tropical Storm Iselle is located about 125 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Movement is toward the west at 15 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 50 mph. Iselle is expected to continue moving toward the west this weekend and may weaken to a depression by Sunday.A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Hawaii County, the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Kauai, Niihau, and Oahu. Tropical storm force winds, very heavy rain, and damaging surf can be expected in these warned a... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 8, 2014

Updated:

The Atlantic Basin remains inactive today with no threats of tropical storm or hurricane development. I think things will stay quiet through early next week.Tom Konvicka More>>

HURRICANE JULIO CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC

Updated:

Hurricane Julio is located about 1155 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Movement is toward the west at 17 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 105 mph. Julio is expected to stay on a west or west-northwest course during the next two days and some weakening may occur during that time frame as well.Julio will pass about 100 miles to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. If this verifies, then the core of Julio will miss the islands and the main effect will be high surf.Tom Konvicka More>>

ISELLE REMAINS A THREAT TO HAWAII

Updated:

Hurricane Iselle is located about 400 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Movement is toward the west-northwest, on a compass heading of 285 degrees, at 16 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 75 mph. Iselle is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest through Friday. This track will take Iselle over the Big Island tonight and will pass south of the smaller islands on Friday. Iselle is expected to weaken during the next two days and may become a tropical storm later tonig... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 7, 2014

Updated:

This is the sixty-eight day of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and it looks like another inactive period has commenced. Bertha is extratropical and there are several tropical waves but none shows any signs of organization. None of our reliable forecast models predict a tropical threat during the next several days. It looks to me like tropical cyclone formation will not occur through Sunday.Tom Konvicka More>>

HURRICANE JULIO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC

Updated:

Hurricane Julio is located about 1555 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Movement is west-northwest at 17 mph. The maximum sustained wind is 75 mph.Julio is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next couple of days. Julio may strengthen tonight but weaken gradually starting Friday. It is possible that Julio could affect Hawaii Sunday and Monday.Tom Konvicka More>>

ISELLE MOVING TOWARD HAWAII

Updated:

Hurricane Iselle is located about 830 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 16 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 90 mph.Iselle is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest for the next couple of days. On this track, Iselle will pass near the Big Island of Hawaii Thursday night. Iselle is expected to weaken some as it approaches Hawaii but may still be a hurricane as it passes near the Big Island. Hurricane conditions are possible ... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 6, 2014

Updated:

Bertha is now post-tropical and is located several hundred miles south of Nova Scotia. Movement is northeast at about 30-35 mph. This is the last advisory on Bertha.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.Tom Konvicka More>>

HURRICANE ISELLE TO AFFECT HAWAII

Updated:

Hurricane Iselle is expected to bring tropical storm force winds to the Big Island of Hawaii by Thursday.Currently, Iselle is located about 985 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 110 mph. Iselle is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed as the storm approaches the islands. Gradual weakening is expected during the next two days.It is unusual for tropical cyclones to ma... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE AUGUST 5, 2014

Updated:

Tropical Storm Bertha is located about 415 miles northwest of Bermuda. Movement is toward the NNE at 21 mph. The maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph. Bertha is experiencing westerly shear that is stripping convection away from the center and displacing it on the eastern side of the storm. Therefore, Bertha has weakened since Monday and is expected to weaken a bit more by Wednesday. Bertha is also expected to accelerate toward the northeast as steering winds increase from the southwest.Elsew... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE AUGUST 4, 2014

Updated:

Hurricane Bertha continues off the east coast of the U.S. about 560 miles WSW of Bermuda. Movement is toward the north at 18 mph. The maximum sustained wind is 75 mph.Bertha is expected to turn more toward the northeast and accelerate by midweek. Gradual weakening is expected as Bertha comes under increasing shear. This scenario places a weakening storm about midway between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda; thus, Bertha is not a threat to land.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are no syst... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE AUGUST 1, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 93-L intensified into Tropical Storm Bertha overnight. Bertha is located over the northern end of Martinique. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 24 mph. The maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for many of the Caribbean Islands as well as the southeast Bahamas.Bertha is expected to continue moving west-northwest through Sunday with little change in strength. By early next week, Bertha should begin moving northward and eve... More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 30, 2014

Updated:

Disturbance 93-L continues about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Movement is toward the west-northwest at near 15 mph. Cloudiness and convection has decreased some since Tuesday; however, the surface wind field is organized. Conditions are marginally favorable for development and 93-L may still become a tropical depression during the next several days.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, things are inactive.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 29, 2014

Updated:

An area of low pressure continues about 1450 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. This system has been given the designation 93-L. Movement is toward the west at 10-15 mph.This feature is organized and is not far from becoming a tropical depression. In fact, most of the suite of computer models predict that 93-L will achieve depression status during the next one to three days. Movement is forecasted to be west-northwest.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are no other features of c... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 28, 2014

Updated:

A new area of interest today in the Tropical Atlantic.A tropical wave several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has been given the designation 93-L. This wave is producing a large area of disorganized clouds and convection. Movement is toward the west at 10-15 mph. Conditions favor slow development.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 23, 2014

Updated:

Today is Day #53 of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season.Tropical Depression #2 has weakened into a tropical wave about 365 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. This remnant is moving westward at 25 mph and should move through the Lesser Antilles this evening. Conditions will remain unfavorable for this system to re-strengthen during the next several days.Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic, there are no systems that threaten tropical cyclone formation over the next five days.Looki... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 22, 2014

Updated:

Tropical Depression #2 continues in the Atlantic about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. TD #2 is moving toward the west at 18 mph and the maximum sustained wind remains near 35 miles. TD #2 is expected to continue a west or west-northwest motion during the next two or three days and may weaken as dry air and wind shear create an unfavorable environment for the system.Elsewhere, the Tropical Atlantic is inactive and no new tropical cyclones are expected through Friday.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2

Updated:

Former Invest 92L has intensified into Tropical Depression #2. The depression is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Movement is toward the west at 16 mph. The maximum sustained wind is near 35 mph.A general west or west-northwest motion is expected during the next several days. Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday; however, the depression may move into a less favorable environment and weaken by late week.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone f... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 18, 2014

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The Atlantic Basin continues to be inactive today with no notable weather systems and tropical cyclone formation is not expected this weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY JULY 17, 2014

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We are now in the forty-seventh day of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and things continue to be inactive. However, one tropical wave that just emerged off the west coast of Africa is accompanied by a significant amount of convection. Conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 16, 2014

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Once again, the Tropics are quiet today. There are no weather systems being monitored for development because dry air and unfavorable winds aloft continue to inhibit any formation of a tropical cyclone. I do not expect anything to develop through this weekend.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY JULY 15, 2014

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The Atlantic Basin remains inactive today and no name storms are expected this week. Dry air and unfavorable winds aloft continue to inhibit tropical cyclone formation.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 14, 2014

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Today is day number 44 of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and I see nothing that concerns me. In fact, tropical storm formation is not expected this week. Dry and and an unfavorable vertical wind profile continue to shut down the action.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: JULY 8, 2014

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The Atlantic Basin remains quiet today and tropical cyclone formation is not expected this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

Tom's Tropical Update: July 7, 2014

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The Atlantic Basin is quiet now since the demise of Hurricane Arthur. Models are not predicting tropical cyclone development this week.Tom Monica More>>

HURRICANE ARTHUR UPDATE: JULY 4, 2014

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Hurricane Arthur is located about 170 miles SSW of Chatham, Massachusetts. Movement is toward the northeast at near 25 mph. The maximum sustained wind is down to 80 mph.Arthur is expected to continue moving northeast through Saturday. This track will take the center of Arthur to the southeast of New England and over western Nova Scotia Saturday, and then to the Gulf of St. Lawrence Saturday night.Arthur should continue to weaken as the storm moves over cooler water and interacts with a trough... More>>

HURRICANE ARTHUR UPDATE: JULY 3, 2014

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Arthur is now a hurricane! And it's early for that feat; the average date of the first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin is August 10. Thus, 2014 brought the first hurricane about five weeks earlier than usual.As of this writing, Hurricane Arthur is located about 35 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. Movement is toward the NNE at 13 mph. The maximum sustained winds are up to 90 mph.Arthur is expected to turn more to the northeast with an increase in forward speed tonight. An even faster ... More>>

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR UPDATE: JULY 2, 2014

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Tropical Storm Arthur is located about 220 miles SSE of Charleston, South Carolina. Movement is north at near 7 mph. The maximum sustained winds are up to 70 mph.Arthur is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane tonight or Thursday. Arthur is also expected to turn toward the north-northeast by Thursday followed by a northeastward motion. This has prompted a Hurricane Warning for Surf City northward to Duck, Pamlico Sound, and eastern Albemarle Sound.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR UPDATE-JULY 1, 2014

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Folks, we have the first named tropical cyclone of the 2014 hurricane season.Tropical Storm Arthur is located about 85 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral, Florida. There has been a NW drift in the storm's motion today. The maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph.Arthur is expected to to the north and then to the northeast over the next couple of days in response to a trough in the jet stream that is digging through the Midwest. On this track, the western side of Arthur my brush the coast of the Car... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY DAY #30

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The Atlantic Basin is quiet except for off the east coast of Florida.A center of low pressure with accompanying convection is located about 110 miles east of Melbourne, Florida. This system has been designated 91-L. Movement is slowly toward the southwest. Maximum sustained winds are already up to 30-35 mph. However, the convective pattern lacks the organization needed to qualify as a tropical cyclone.I expect 91-L to intensify and become the first tropical cyclone of the year. In fact, 91-L ... More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE DAY #27

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The Atlantic Basin remains quiet today and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the weekend.Next week, however, things may get a bit more interesting. A weak surface low is located over South Carolina and it is expected to migrate out into the open waters of the Atlantic off the southeastern coast by early next week. The European model indicates possible intensification of this low by the middle of next week. Stay tuned!Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY #26

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The Atlantic Basin remains quiet today and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the weekend. Next week, however, some of our computer models are indicating an area of low pressure may form off the cost of the southeastern U.S. next week.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY JUNE 23, 2014

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It is the twenty third day of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season yet conditions remain inactive. I do not expect tropical cyclone development this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY DAY #20

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The Atlantic Basin is a bit more active than in previous days; however, there are no legitimate threats for tropical cyclone development.A weak area of surface low pressure is located about 80 miles ENE of Daytona Beach, Florida. Movement is slowly northward. Conditions are not favorable for development.Weak tropical waves are located in the eastern Caribbean Sea and in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean. Neither feature shows any signs of organization.Tom Konvicka More>>

THE TROPICS-DAY #13

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It is Day #13 of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and there are no features that threaten tropical storm formation through the weekend.In the eastern Pacific, Cristina is approaching Socorro Island as a Category I hurricane. Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY: JUNE 12, 2014

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The Atlantic Basin remains inactive today and tropical storm formation is not expected through this weekend.Category IV Hurricane Cristina continues about 270 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. The maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph. Cristina is expected to continue moving WNW or NW and will stay away from land.Tom Konvicka More>>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK-JUNE 9, 2014

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The Tropics are quiet today as the surface trade winds are well-established and high-level winds of 20-30 knots remain common from the Gulf of Mexico eastward through the North Atlantic Ocean. Thus, tropical cyclone formation is not expected this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

2014 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON-DAY #3

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We are already into the third day of the 2014 hurricane season. A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing cloudiness and convection over much of the southern Gulf of Mexico. The trough is nearly stationary and is causing strong winds aloft, which will limit the chance for tropical cyclone formation this week.Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, the weather is quiet.Tom Konvicka More>>

2014 HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTIONS

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Since Colorado State University started doing tropical outlooks over 30 years ago, it seems like just about everyone has a prediction now. This blog offers a summary of legitimate predictions from a variety More>>

2014 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON-DAY #2

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A surface trough is located over the western Gulf of Mexico from 25N and 95Wto the Bay of Campeche. An upper-level low is centered over the northwest Gulf near 26N and 93W.These features are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms, but high-level shear from the upper low will inhibit organized convection.I do not expect a named storm to develop this week.Tom Konvicka More>>

THE 2014 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON-DAY #1

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Welcome to the first tropical blog brought to you by the meteorologists inthe First Alert Storm Center. On Day #1, we have a trough of low pressure at the surface over the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature has shown very little movement during the past six hours. An upper-level circulation aloft is located east of Brownsville near 24N and 93W. The interaction between this feature and the surface trough is triggering cloudiness and convection. Conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclo... More>>

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