Low-level clouds will increase today as south winds become established through all levels of the atmosphere. Storms will form along a front in eastern Texas, but it appears most of the rainfall will stay to our west today. By tomorrow, this front will slowly edge into the area, which could kick off scattered thunderstorms across the area. At the present time, models are differing on their solutions, with each model showing a different storm mode and the amount of storm activity that develops. Atmospheric winds should be relatively weak, which means storm motion could be slow and erratic. This could lead to locally heavy rainfall, especially where rainfall rates are high. Tomorrow will be the type of day where some areas could pick up an inch or more of rain, while others may pick up nothing.
We'll stay in a southerly flow regime through Thursday and Friday, which will lead to warm temperatures and abundant cloud cover. Humidity will also stay high.
By the weekend, an easterly wave at the surface, along with a weakness aloft, may be enough to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. This is beginning to look more like a late-spring early summer type pattern, with showers and storms possible in the afternoon hours, due to daytime destabilization.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier