UPDATE: This month looks to be finishing in the same fashion it began, with temperatures well above average. Crunching the numbers for the last 15 days of the month and comparing them to the numbers for the first 12 days, this month will definitely be in the top 5 warmest February months on record. Thermometers at AEX recorded a low temperature of 72 degrees this morning, which would be the warmest overnight low temperature ever in the month of February. This would break the old record of 70 degrees, set back in 1897. Doing a bit of analysis, if my projected high today of 83 degrees occurs, this will put us near an overall average monthly temperature of 62.6 degrees. This would tie this month with 1927 for the second warmest February on record. The warmest February month on record was in 1932, which remains at the top with the help of very warm overnight lows that month and an overall record of 88 degrees, which is still the warmest February day ever. This was during the Dust Bowl era, which still continues to be one of the warmest periods ever across the United States as a whole. Either way, February 2017 will be significant, at least finishing in the top 5 warmest February months on record going back to 1892. In case you're counting, that's a 125 year span.
As you may have noticed, we have not seen much of a winter over the past few weeks. In fact, this month, so far, is on track to be one of the warmest February months on record. We have already hit record high temperatures three days this month.
On Sunday, February 12th, the temperature at AEX hit 86 degrees. This ties the second warmest February day on record. We also hit 86 degrees on February 10th, 1957 and the only day warmer than Sunday is February 28th, 1932, when the temperature hit 88 degrees.
Through the first twelve days of the month, only 2 days saw temperatures below average. Seven out of the twelve days saw temperatures 15-plus degrees above average. Five out of the twelve days saw temperatures 20-plus degrees above average.
Through the calculation ((Sum of 12-Averages)/Number of Days), we get the overall average of the 12 days so far, which is +12.9 degrees above normal. The overall average temperature of the month, so far, is 63.2 degrees, which is 0.2 degrees behind the all-time warmest February on record (63.4), set back in 1932.
A late month cold spell could cancel out the warm first-half and put us near an average month, but if this warm spell continues through the next few weeks, this month could end up finishing among the warmest February months on record. It will be an interesting trend to watch. As of now, only one day in my seven day forecast has a forecasted high/low temperature that is BELOW average.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier