We saw scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the area today, with the aid of daytime heating and a weakness aloft. Weaknesses are steadily streaming in with a west-to-east flow aloft. Another, weaker, impulse is expected to move through during the day tomorrow. This, along with daytime heating and moisture, will produce isolated storm activity. It gets harder to predict timing and coverage of rainfall during the late-spring and summer months, due to activity randomly developing and being randomly placed, but my best guess is that storm coverage could increase later during the afternoon hours tomorrow. This appears to be when the greatest atmospheric lift will start to nose in from the west. Storm coverage should be isolated (30-40% coverage) in nature.
A stronger impulse will begin to work into the area by Monday and Tuesday. Moisture levels in the atmosphere will also begin to increase. These two factors have led me to increase storm coverage into more of a scattered (50-60%) range for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Storms that do develop could contain locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
Rain chances should begin to slowly decrease by Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure begins to build back in. High pressure aloft tends to promote sinking air, which limits storm coverage. This will also lead to warmer temperatures, with temperatures pushing the mid-80s for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of next week.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier