Still looks on track for a rough day across the area today. A warm front, currently situated across the upper Texas coast, will begin to lift northward this morning and this afternoon. This will add energy to the atmosphere, in the form of warm air, moisture, and instability. There are still some questions, however, as to how far north this front will get. Discrete cells, capable of producing large hail and tornadoes, will form right along and just to the south of the warm front. Because of this, how far north the front gets is important. Some models keep the warm front further south, keeping the discrete cells further south through early this afternoon, while other models move it further north. The point I'm trying to make is that although I believe severe weather will be possible for most of the area, the degree of it and level of risk is still not 100% clear. We will pretty much have to watch surface analysis maps and radar trends throughout the day to track the progress of the warm front.
If the warm front does get far enough north to adversely affect our weather, I believe all modes of severe weather could be possible. Discrete cells will form along the front closer to the Noon hour, with these storms possibly having rotation and becoming large hail producers. Later in the afternoon and evening, closer to 6pm, a squall-line will work through the area. With this line, damaging winds will be the primary risk. The area is under an "Enhanced" risk, meaning that numerous severe storms could be possible, which could be long-lived.
Another aspect of this system is the possibility for flooding rains. With storms moving over some of the same areas and producing high rainfall rates, it appears 2-4 inches of rain could be possible across the area. Of course, this means that isolated higher amounts of 5-6 inches could be possible. This rain would be falling on already saturated grounds, meaning that flooding won't be hard to achieve.
HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO DO....Turn on your weather radios if you have them. Have them ready to alarm and alert you throughout the day. The "on" switch can be found on the right side of the radio. Make sure it is plugged into the wall outlet, so that it won't die. When scrolling through the options, make sure the "Alert Type" is set to "Tone." This allows the radio to alarm loudly, alerting you if your parish is under any type of warning. You can also go to kalb.com as the latest warnings populate directly to the website as they happen. Of course, I'll be keeping my social media pages updated and will be cutting into television as needed.
If you have to travel, downloading our KALB Weather app is a good idea, which allows you to have radar wherever you go. With the potential for large hail, it may be a great idea to move vehicles under a protective cover. With damaging winds and tornadoes a threat, leaving mobile homes, or homes surrounding by large oak trees would be best. Finally, if you encounter flooding or water on the roadways, do not drive through it!
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier