Storms likely, heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible

Scattered storms developed across the area today, in response to a very moist atmospheric aloft and a weak surface cold front that slipped through the area. As of writing time, the weak front is positioned right across the area, from southeastern Texas and extended northeast to near southeastern Arkansas. Scattered storms will continue to develop across this boundary through the night, with isolated strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and hail. We did receive a few reports of storms containing gusty winds today and a few rogue warnings have popped up throughout the day. Parts of the area also received heavy rainfall with areas of Rapides parish picking up 2-3 inches.

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Figure 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Totals

This front will remain across the area through the next few days, with multiple impulses rotating around an upper-level trough aloft. For this reason, it appears scattered storms will remain in the forecast tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday. Storms will have the capability of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, high rainfall rates, and localized flooding. The strongest impulse will come in on Monday, which will be when the highest rain chance and greatest chance of seeing flooding will be. The latest RPM model shows the possibility of areas picking up an additional 1-4 inches of rain through Monday night.

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Figure 2: RPM model (out 48 hours)

Other models show a similar picture, with the greatest rainfall totals from Highway 190 and points to the south. My forecast will call for 1-4 inches of rain across the area through Wednesday morning, with parts of Acadiana possibly receiving 2-5 inches. This could be enough to cause flash flooding if rain falls at a quick rate. Severe weather chances will be low, although a few strong storms cannot be ruled out.

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier