A cold front is currently situated across Texas this morning, with warm, moist air streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a pocket of cooler, drier air is moving in in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Current atmosphere features winds that are increasing with height and temperatures that are dropping quickly with height, especially in the mid-levels. These ingredients are leading to the threat for severe storms later tonight.
The front will begin to move into the Sabine River valley between 2pm-4pm. A slow-moving line of storms will move eastward across the area through this evening, with the storms arriving over the heart of central Louisiana by 6pm-9pm. The main hazards with this activity will be the threat for damaging winds, in excess of 60 mph, and large hail. A dry pocket of air aloft, and winds some 50-60 knots aloft, could be enough to produce those damaging wind gusts. With temperatures falling quickly with height, this heightens the risk for large hail, which could exceed quarter-sized. Tornadoes look to be more likely across northern Louisiana, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially embedded within the main line.
It won't rain all night, however, and storms should not last all that long in your specific area. The line of storms will blow through, you'll get a quick inch or so of rain, and storms will quickly move out.
ACTION TO TAKE: Turn on your NOAA weather radios this evening. Keep kalb.com up as the latest warnings automatically post to the page. If your area is under a warning, tune to KALB as we will be cutting into programming when needed. If you have to travel, download our KALB weather app, so that you can have radar on the go. Move vehicles under cover to protect them from the possibility of large hail and leave mobile homes, especially if surrounded by large oak trees, which can fall in strong winds.
It appears another round of strong-to-severe storms could be possible Saturday night and Sunday. This is due to another strong cold front and upper-level impulse that will be working through. I'll continue to monitor this weather system and have updates later this week.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier