By Tom Konvicka Chief Meteorologist
Over the past several days I've presented a series of blogs coverning items related to tornadoes and anticipated climate change. Today, I sort all of this content out and present the "bottom line."
Two things we can say now are:
1) We do not know if climate change is affecting the climatology, location, or intensity of tornadoes. We have our suspicions, but no one has the answers yet and it will take years to get these answers that will stand up to scientific scrutiny.
2) Research is increasing and at least some answers are waiting to be discovered.
Here are a few of those suspicions I have:
1) The number of tornadoes in the U.S. will increase in the future in response to a more unstable atmosphere, a product of global warming.
2) More tornadoes will occur in the fall and in the winter in response to stronger poleward intrusions of warm, moist air interacting with the jetstream
3) Tornadoes may increase in areas that almost never see tornadoes (like Alaska and the Pacific West Coast)
4) Weather systems will tend to produce more regional and local tornado outbreaks instead of massive outbreaks.
5) The number of violent (EF4 and EF5) tornadoes may decrease.
As usual, only time will tell.
I'll bring you updates on the cyclone toll in Myanmar and the earthquake in China tomorrow.
Best,
Tom Konvicka