SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOKS
We’re five days deep into the 2008 hurricane season and already one tropical storm, Arthur, has come and gone. What’s ahead for the remainder of the season? Let’s survey the various sources of predictions for the 2008 hurricane season.

- AccuWeather is a large, private meteorological firm that perodically issues outlooks for tropical activity. Their latest forecast calls for 12 named storms in 2008 but they do not forecast the number of hurricanes or major hurricanes.

- Colorado State University in Boulder is probably the best known group. The forecast team, led by the venerable Dr. Bill Gray and his student Phil Klotzbach, expects 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

- North Carolina State researchers are one of the newer teams to try and outguess the Tropics. They predict 13-15 named tropical storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and they issue no prediction for the number of major hurricanes.

- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the parent organization of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), expects 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes. Hmmm..."close enough” for government work?

- The Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. group is a UK-based private firm with the best recent (2006 and 2007) track record. They forecast 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

- The Weather Research Center (WRC) is a Houston-based private, non-profit company. Their 2008 forecast calls for 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

- WSI is a private meteorological firm that is well-known as a data and graphics vendor to the broadcast industry. They look for 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

DISCUSSION
These various sources all predict a normal to above normal hurricane season for 2008. They also cite common factors such as the lack of an El Nino event, above average oceanic heat potential, lower than average pressure in the eastern Atlantic, and slower trade winds. I would forecast on the high side of these numbers since we’re still in the active North Atlantic cycle that began around 1995:

-Tom Konvicka’s forecast for the 2008 tropical season calls for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

As they say, only time will tell.

Best,
Tom Konvicka