Tropical Predictions - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

Tropical Predictions

Since Colorado State University started doing tropical outlooks over 30 years ago, it seems like just about everyone has a prediction now. This blog offers a summary of legitimate predictions from a variety of sources.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 13-20 named storms in the Atlantic Basin in 2013. In fact, they say there is a 70% chance of that many storms.

Ironically, Colorado State will not issue their outlook until June 3. Hmmm...they used to be the first to issue outlooks, now they're the last.

Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) says they believe there will be 15 named storms.

The UK Met Office (UKMET) predicts 14 named storms.

The Weather Channel (TWC) and their partner WSI predict 16 storms.

The Instituto de Meterologia de la Republica de Cuba (INSMET) outlooks 17 storms. Cuban tropical meteorologists have long been among the best in the world.

Penn State University (PSU), which operates one of the largest and most respected educational programs in meteorological studies, predicts 16 storms.

AccuWeather, one of the nation's largest private meteorological services providers, follows nearby Penn State with predicting 16 storms.

The WeatherUnderground community, a popular online destination for weather information, predicts 17 named storms.

And...finally...KALB's First Alert Weather Team predicts 18 named storms.

The long-term average is 11 named storms, so all involved say it will be a busy season. The major reasons for the active predictions are warmer than normal water temperatures in much of the Atlantic Basin, a neutral El Nino/La Nina cycle, and the persistence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) cycle. Stay tuned...only time will tell for sure!

Tom Konvicka

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