Thursday, June 21
There is currently an active Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.
Hurricane Chris (Cat. 1) is located at 41.1N & 43.2W and is centered about 625mi SouthEast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Chris has Max Sustained winds of 75mph and a Min Central pressure of 987mb (29.15") and is moving NE (45) at 20mph.
The NHC (National Hurricane Center) has just upgraded Chris to hurricane status. This makes Chris the first Hurricane of the 2012 season. After satellite analysis, T.S. Chris has a clearly defined center of circulation and has been taking on a classical Tropical Cyclone shape during the last several hours. This is showing organization and intensification. Little change in strength is expected today as the storm begins its turn to the NE, then the North. Chris is entering an area that is not conducive for development. Cooler SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) and greater shear values in advance of another upper-level weather feature will inhibit further development.
Chris will begin its turn to the NE, then the North and NW before being dissolved by another system.
T.S. Chris will not affect the Gulf Coast.
An area of low pressure is over the SouthCentral GoM (Gulf of Mexico) and is producing a large area of Clouds, Showers and Thunderstorms that extends from the NorthWestern Caribbean Sea, Northward, into the SouthEastern GoM and Florida.
Strong upper-level winds over the GoM are expected to diminish in a day or so, and some gradual development of this system is possible as the disturbance moves slowly Northward, toward the Central GoM.
Model Guidance suggests that this system will meander over the Central GoM for several days before moving on. That will allow plenty time for development as this system sits over the warm waters of the GoM.
When looking at several different models, there is a lot of disagreement associated with this system. The future of this system is almost split 50/50. Half of the models are taking it toward the Florida Gulf Coast and the other half are taking it to the Texas Gulf Coast. Either way, there is still plenty of time for development and still an open forecast track.
This system has a Medium chance (30%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
After development, this system could affect the Louisiana Gulf Coast.
There are NO Coastal Watches or Warnings in effect.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the Storm Team 5 Hurricane Center.