Rain Chances On The Rise

Posted: Updated:

July 6

11:45pm

Overview

This weekend there is a developing LPS (Low Pressure System) over the SE U.S. that will bring with it a likely chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another LPS in the Midwest will provide a likely chance for rain. This system will bring a slight risk for severe weather to affected areas as it quickly moves toward the eastern seaboard. Parts of the east coast will also see a slight chance for severe weather.

To read our latest Tropical Outlook, follow the link below to the Hurricane Center.

Discussion
A ridge of high pressure that is over the area is weakening and winds have been coming from the East and SE. This combination is leading to more humidity being pumped into the region. Highs are expected to remain in the 90's with high humidity values. This will keep Heat Indices near triple digits. At 1130am skies were clear over Alexandria. This is allowing the temperature to get high, very fast. With that being said, daytime heating will lead to convection, this afternoon. The lack of steering aloft means that there will not be very much influence in the direction of any pulse storms that we see this afternoon. There are only two features that will drive convection. The Sea breeze that will catch up with later this evening and an old outflow boundary that is moving in from the NE. So, though we are seeing clear skies right now, activity will pick up this afternoon. During the next several days we will see a Low Pressure System begin to develop over the region and that feature will keep rain chances elevated throughout the next several days. During that time, we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms.

For the rest of the day
Expect plenty of sunshine with partly cloudy skies during the midday hours. This afternoon, convection will lead to increasing clouds and rising rain chances. All together our area will see a 50% chance for rain. This means that half of the area will receive some rainfall from this event. The good news is that the rain will not be over after today. Much needed rainfall is on the way. Highs today are expected to reach the mid to upper 90's with a lot of humidity present. This combination will lead to a Heat Index (feels like temperature) in the triple digits. Winds will remain light to moderate and variable throughout the day. However if a thunderstorm is in your area, winds will pick up. Overnight, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and conditions will be muggy with a light wind and a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms.

For the rest of the 7day planner
Rain chances will remain moderate to good all week long as a Low Pressure System develops and moves toward our area. With rain chances and cloud cover so abundant, we will see temperatures begin to drop to around 90 by the beginning of the work week. However, these temperatures coupled with high humidity values that we are expecting will lead to high Heat Index values near triple digits.

TODAY...Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered (50%) showers and thunderstorms. Highs 93-99. The peak heat index may reach 105. Variable wind, strong near storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and muggy with a few showers and thunderstorms after 1AM. Variable wind, strong near storms. Lows 71-77.

Note: During times of extreme heat and abundant sunshine, it is important to stay Hydrated and apply sunscreen throughout the day.

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~DEW