Wednesday, May 29
Tropical development is not expected in the Atlantic Basin during the next 48 hours.
In the East Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Barbara is currently located at 15.7N 94.6W. This storm is 55mi SE of Cruz, Mexico. Max wind speeds are sustained at 65mph wit a Min Central Pressure of 995mb (29.38"). Barbara is moving NE (40) at 13mph.
After Satellite and Radar analysis, recent data indicates that Barbara has been trying to form an eye and is continuing to intensify in strength. As max wind speeds continue to climb and the pressure continues to fall this Tropical Storm's forecast has been changed to include the probability of Barbara becoming a Cat 1. Hurricane before making landfall on the Southern, Pacific Coast of Mexico.
The center of Barbara will make landfall in the Warning area, later today and move over SE Mexico tonight. It is there that we will begin to see the first signs of dissipation.
The Mountainous terrain of Mexico will cause shear aloft, with the increased wind speeds. Shear does NOT play well with Tropical Cyclones and will rip this one apart.
This storm will weaken as it moves North, across southern Mexico and will dissipate as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.
As Barbara moves into the Southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico), it will only be the remnants of a tropical cyclone. The surface water temps of the GoM are cooler than in the East Pacific and will create an environment that is not conducive for further tropical development and the remnants of Barbara should fizzle out in the Southern GoM.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.