Monday, June 3
In the Atlantic Basin, there is an area of interest. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low pressure stretched from the NW Yucatan Peninsula to the Eastern GoM (Gulf of Mexico) and Florida Straits. This broad Low is producing a large area of cloudiness, disorganized thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
Any development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to marginally favorable conditions.
Last week's Barbara left a lot of moisture over the Southern GoM. This moisture moved up into the SE GoM and Western Caribbean Sea. There are also very high shear values associated with this system.
Shear aloft "Rips" the mid & upper levels of a storm apart. So this additional shear will also hinder rapid development.
This system has a LOW chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it slowly drifts Northward.
Regardless of development, heavy rains will impact parts of Florida through the next 4 days. On average 4-8 " of new rain fall accumulations can be expected during that time.
Elsewhere, Tropical Development is not expected during the next 48 hours
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.