Tuesday, June 4
In the Atlantic Basin, there is an area of interest between the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida Straits. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this very weak area of low pressure over the Central Gulf of Mexico has not become any better organized since this time yesterday nor has it moved much at all. Most of the rain is located East & SE of the Low, due to strong upper-level winds.
Remember: Strong shear (different wind speeds at different heights) is not conducive for tropical development. Stronger shear values create a hostile environment for the further strengthening of storms and quite often weakens storms when higher values are present.
Conditions could become a little more favorable for slow development during the next couple of days. That is, before the low interacts with an upper-level trough.
This system has a MEDIUM chance (30%) of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will impact the NE Yucatan Peninsula, Central & Western Cuba and Florida through the next several days.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
Elsewhere, Tropical Formation is not expected in the Atlantic Basin during the next 48 hours.