Wednesday, June 5
There is an area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave that is stretched from Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula consists of a broad area of Low Pressure, Disorganized thunderstorms and gusty conditions. This area of cloudiness and convection (over the SW GoM (Gulf of Mexico)) is beginning to show some signs of organization. Although Thunderstorm activity increased overnight, circulation remains poorly defined.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development during the next day or so as this storm meanders and slowly moves toward the North & NE.
If development picks up, a Tropical Depression or Storm could form before this system moves NE over Northern Florida late Thursday and Thursday Night.
This system has a MEDIUM chance (50%) of becoming a Subtropical or Tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this storm later this afternoon. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall can be expected in Cuba, the Florida Keys and across the Gulf & Atlantic Coasts of the U.S. during the next 3 days. Some could see 5-8 inches or more.
Tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.