There is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical Storm Dorian is located 410 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands and is centered at 14.3N & 29.9W. Max sustained winds are 50mph. Min central Pressure 1002mb (29.59") and the storm is moving WNW (285) at 21mph.
Watches/Warnings - NONE
After satellite and data analysis, newly formed T.S. (Tropical Storm) Dorian has continued to strengthen and become more organized throughout the morning. Via visible satellite imagery and through satellite derived wind speed readings, the NHC (National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL) has upgraded T.D. Four to T.S. Dorian for the midday update.
A deep layer, subtropical ridge is anchored over the Central and Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Our T.S. Will travel along the Southern edge of this ridge. As the storm gets caught in the Clockwise flow of the ridge, it will continue to gain some strength. Model guidance is coming to a relative consensus as Spaghetti Plots are showing a tight grouping as the storm travels across the Atlantic Ocean through the weekend. There is a little divergence toward the end of the forecast track, however this is expected so far out. Nevertheless, Dorian is expected to continue its WNW or Westward by this High Pressure Ridge for the next several days.
Right now, the inflow of the storm is bringing warm and unstable air into the storm and the projected environment of the storm during the next couple of days does not look to be detrimental to continued development. In fact Dorian will be moving into an area where vertical shear is nearly negligible. During the same time, the warm and moist inflow will counteract any cooler and more stable air moving in from the North.
However, during the next 24 to 48 hours, Dorian will be moving over cooler waters. These SSTs (Sea Surface Temps) are not quite in the lower to mid 80. In fact, they are slightly cooler and could induce some slight weakening. At the least, these cooler waters will slow down the progression of Dorian and limit intensification during the 2day time period.
After this period, Dorian will enter an environment that does show warmer SSTs. However, this same environment begins to introduce Westerly sheer into the equation. For this reason, the intensity forecast does not move much during he next several days, as this storm makes its way across the Atlantic Ocean.
Dorian is not expected to affect the LA, MS, AL, TX Gulf Coast, at this time.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.