Thursday, July 25
There is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical Storm Dorian is located 1800 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and is centered at 16.0N & 35.9W. Max sustained winds are 60mph. Min central Pressure 999mb (29.50") and the storm is moving WNW (285) at 17mph.
Watches/Warnings - NONE
After satellite and data analysis, T.S. (Tropical Storm) Dorian continues to remain a tightly packed and symmetric. The only thing that is missing is symmetry in the outflow pattern. Otherwise, this storm is trucking along and could see some slight intensification. The overall structure of the system has not changed much and Dorian is now coming into warmer waters.
Officially there is not much change to the forecast track, they just extended it for the forecast period. Model guidance is keeping a consensus of moving Dorian WNW during the next 5 days. This track will move the storm into the Western Atlantic Ocean by Monday or Tuesday. The main discrepancy lies with the forward speed of this storm. Models that are slowing progression down are compensating for a stronger vortex. A second area where models are diverging is the track toward the end of the run.
The track is showing different in a few models due to a perceived weakening in the Subtropical Ridge. This is taking place 2-3 days out. If the ridge does in fact begin to break down, we will see more of a Northward turn later as the storm approaches the edge of the High (around the Western Atlantic Ocean). In the chance that this does verify, the storm will either skirt up the Atlantic Coastline or even better, become a "Fish Storm" and go back out to sea.
The other outcome would revolve around the Subtropical Ridge remaining constant and Strong. This would bring Dorian right in to Florida or across the Islands and into the GoM (Gulf of Mexico). Either way, this second outcome would make a landfall most likely. And this what the Official NHC (National Hurricane Center) forecast reflects.
Dorian did make it through an area of much cooler water and unfavorable wind shear patterns. Also equatorial inflow (inflow from the southern hemisphere of the storm) more than likely counteracted the Cooler SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) and helped keep the storm together. However, during the next day or so, the storm will move through an area of decreasing Mid-level moisture and more stable air.
This is not good when it comes to tropical systems. So, more than likely we could see some weakening. After the next 2 days or so, Dorian will move back into an area that favors some slight development.
Nevertheless, It doesn't look like Dorian will gain much strength as it moves across the Atlantic, this weekend.
Dorian is not expected to affect the LA, MS, AL, TX Gulf Coast, at this time.
There is also a Weak surface low that is located a few hundred miles East of Bermuda. This system has a lot going on with it and doesn't have much time to develop as it moves North (Toward Cooler SSTs). Upper level conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for some development during the next day or so.
This system has a LOW chance (20%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves NW / North around 15mph.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
My FB forecasting page. Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger