There is One Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical Storm Dorian is located 1295 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and is centered at 17.7N & 43.49W. Max sustained winds are 50mph. Min central Pressure 1006mb (29.71") and the storm is moving WNW (285) at 21mph.
Watches/Warnings - NONE
After satellite and data analysis, T.S. (Tropical Storm) Dorian continues to remain a tightly packed. However Dorian has become somewhat disorganized and is losing the deep convection that we were looking at, yesterday. Furthermore, the typical banding that we normally see. This means that the storm is losing some intensity.
Ahead of Dorian, several different factors are lining up. Ahead of Dorian, there is a large pool of dry air in the mid and upper levels, increased wind shear and an area that is generally not conducive for development. However, the storm will be moving through warmer waters and models are showing a slight decrease in shear during the near future.
All of this together will cause some weakening in of Dorian. During the next 4-5 days, the storm will be moving along the southern edge of a broad ridge of high pressure anchored over the Mid-Atlantic Ocean. The official track and intensity forecasts have not changed much at all since advisories have been issued. This happens a lot with the current set up. A storm develops and tracks along the southern edge of the Atlantic ridge. The tricky part comes around days 4 and 5. By this time some of the model guidance is beginning to diverge.
On one hand (Most of the models) the Atlantic ridge will stay strong and Dorian will move to the South of Florida. If this happens, land interaction will be the primary focus. For example, if Dorian goes over Hispaniola, the 10000' mountain peaks will rip the storm apart. The second outcome is that a mid-latitude cyclone will form and move from the West to the East across the U.S. and into the Atlantic Ocean. If this happens, we will see Dorian ride the front, switch directions and take a sharp turn to the North and NE.
Right now, both scenarios are acceptable. Once again the first is showing up with most of the models. However, this storm is still only half way across the Atlantic Ocean. The entire environment is still subject to change. The one thing that has remained constant is that through Mon we will see Dorian continue to move WNW or West and approach the Northern Leeward Islands.
Dorian is not expected to affect the LA, MS, AL, TX Gulf Coast, at this time.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
My FB forecasting page. Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger