Saturday, July 27, 2013
The remnants of Dorian are still struggling to remain relevant.
Dorian is located 550 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and is centered at 18.9N & 54.7W. Max sustained winds are 40mph. Min central Pressure 1011mb (29.85") and Dorian is moving west (280) at 24mph.
Dorian is nothing more than remnants currently. Although it is moving into warmer waters, there are other non-favorable conditions the remnants will be experiencing. For example, Dorian seems to be moving back into an area of strong shear. The system is moving so quickly, it cannot keep organized. This may help with the entrainment of dry air to the west which is also not good for the storm.
The models are really keeping it in a westward motion, which will introduce it to much terrain. At already a weakened state, this is not good news for Dorian. Even if it keeps a path toward the west, intensity is likely to be very weak. The position of a trough currently over the eastern United States will also have an impact whether or not Dorian will be pulled toward the north, however as stated, most models are keeping it to the west.
The area of strong shear, associated with an upper level low to the NW has the possibility of becoming less of a factor depending on the position of this low. Intensity more or less is going to depend the strength and area of this shear.
Dorian, at this point is not expected to affect Central Louisiana.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.