Sunday, July 28, 2013
The remnants of Dorian are still struggling to remain relevant.
The National Hurricane Center does not even officially recognize Dorian as a tropical depression anymore because of the system's poor circulation and current status.
Currently, there is an upper level low blocking Dorian's path and this will continue to inhibit development through wind shear. However, the low seems to me moving slightly to the NNW, which if this low does eventually move out of the way, this may give way for Dorian to in fact begin to strengthen and organize if it can develop enough convection. Most models do not currently forecast Dorian to strengthen by very much, however the NHC has declared a 50% chance of redevelopment within the next 48 hours.
If Dorian does find the power to strengthen, then many models call for the trough exiting the United States to help pull this storm to the north around south Florida, thus impacting the area. Be this as it may, the system right now looks to be more of a rain maker than a strong tropical system.
Even though Dorian is not officially even a tropical depression currently, we will continue to monitor Dorian for redevelopment until any potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico is gone.
Overall, Dorian has the chance to redevelop, but the odds are not in its favor and if it does redevelop, it does not look to be a very strong system.
Dorian at this point is not expected to affect Central Louisiana.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.