Monday, July 29
Eyes remain focused on a broad area of low pressure that is a couple hundred miles North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This trough of low pressure is associated with the remnants of Dorian.
After Satellite and Radar analysis, this system is very disorganized and lacking an apparent "Closed Circulation". Also surface pressures are remaining high.
Environment conditions are expected to become only fairly conducive for regeneration.
The remnants of Dorian have a MODERATE chance (40%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves WNW at 15-20mph.
If this system doesn't interact much with land as it moves through this narrow corridor, we could see the low make it all the way to the GoM (Gulf of Mexico). If this verifies then warmer SSTs, less Vertical Wind Shear and additional moisture will be a good environment for development.
Most of the model guidance is taking the storm right through this path and some models are even bringing this system back to T.S. (Tropical Storm) strength.
Meanwhile, Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, No tropical development is expected during the next 48 hours.
Forecasters are also keeping a close eye on T.S. Flossie that is currently approaching Hawaii.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.