Tuesday, July 30
There is a trough of low pressure and a tropical wave (the remnants of Dorian) that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This broad area of Low Pressure extends from a few hundred miles East & NE of the Turks and Caicos islands. This disturbance is centered at 21.4N & 69.4W with Max sustained winds only at 30mph.
Upper level winds are not expected to be conducive for regeneration during the next couple of days and the storm is coming into an area of some upper level shear.
This disturbance will continue to move West or WNW at 10-15mph.
There is a LOW chance (20) of becoming a Tropical during the next 48 hours.
Showers & Thunderstorms associated with squalls are producing some gusty winds and are affecting the Turks and Caicos islands. The system should begin to move westward across portions of the Bahamas as soon as this afternoon and into early Thursday.
Most of the model guidance hasn't changed much and is taking the storm right through this path and some models are even strengthening this system a little bit. If this does verify, the possibility of this disorganized cluster of shower and thunderstorm activity making it to the GoM (Gulf of Mexico)
with some redevelopment is on the table.
Meanwhile, Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, No tropical development is expected during the next 48 hours.
Forecasters are also keeping a close eye on T.D. Flossie that is currently affecting Hawaii.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.