Friday, August 2
There is a trough of low pressure and a tropical wave (the remnants of Dorian) that is producing an area of convection. This cluster of shower and thunderstorm activity is located between the NW Bahamas and the East Coast of Florida.
After satellite and radar analysis, we are continuing to see some organization with this system. Overnight, there has not been much noticeable development. The next 24 hours will be critical for the possible development of this system. The remnants of Dorian could see some slight development during the next 24 hours.
Nevertheless, this system will bring cloudiness, showers and a few thunderstorms to affected areas (including Florida, today)
This weekend, the disturbance is expected to move NNE and become associated with a front that will be pushing off the Atlantic Coastline, during the next couple of days. Once a system becomes enveloped in a front, it usually picks up speed and rides the front until upper-level shear rips the system apart. Since the remnants of Dorian are not well organized and lack any punch, we will see this system break apart rather quickly.
This system has a MEDIUM chance (30%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Most of the model guidance hasn't changed much and is taking the storm right through up the East Coast before re-curving into the Atlantic Ocean after being absorbed by the approaching Cold Front.
Elsewhere, in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, No tropical development is expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.