Tuesday, August 13
There is an open tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea. Cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms extending from the SW Caribbean Sea, NE to near Jamaica are associated with this open wave and a broad area of low pressure. There is upper level wind shear over this system, now. This wind shear is keeping the system from developing during the next couple of days. However, these winds are expected to become more favorable for development as this disturbance moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the Southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico).
This system has a LOW chance (10%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours. And a MEDIUM chance (30%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days.
Guidance models are suggesting that this area of interest could develop into a storm and make its way into the GoM where the warm gulf waters will create a very healthy environment for possible development. Several of these models are bringing the system into the Northern GoM and conditions could facilitate development into a Hurricane before making a landfall.
If this system develops, the track will depend heavily on where development occurs. As of now, there are a couple different potential scenarios. Either way, a broad ridge of high pressure is anchored over Texas. So the TX gulf coast looks like it will fair well from this system. So, after entering the GoM there are 2 different ways that the system could go, if it holds together and goes through development.
1) We could see the system move across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche and southern GoM.
2) The system could track along the Eastern edge of this High Pressure and take a NW turn, followed by a NE turn and approach the NE GoM. At this point, landfall could occur from the LA coastline all the way to the FL coastline.
Right now we are still waiting to see if the system will develop. If so, this system could move into the East Gulf from the NW Caribbean, late Thursday and gradually approach the NE Gulf Coast by as soon as Saturday.
We will continue to monitor this developing system and any others.
In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, No tropical development is expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.