I continue to watch a tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean. The convection is disorganized and the wave is under about 30-40 knots of high-level wind shear. Therefore; tropical cyclone development is not expected through Wednesday.
After Wednesday, this tropical wave will encounter a more favorable upper-level wind profile and the possibility of tropical cyclone formation increases. In fact, the GFS, Canadian, and Naval models forecast the potential for the wave to become a cyclone by late week or the weekend. I'll post an update Wednesday.