Wednesday, August 14
In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there are two different disturbances that we are monitoring for further development in the Atlantic Basin.
After Satellite, Radar & Surface Observation analysis, There is a developing LPS (Low Pressure System) that is continuing to form and located between the NE tip of Honduras and the Cayman Islands where the shower and thunderstorm activity has become concentrated during the past several hours. Upper level winds are favorable for additional development of this disturbance during the next couple of days as it moves NW at 10-15mph toward the Yucatan Peninsula and Southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico).
This system has a MEDIUM chance (50%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance (60%) of becoming a Tropical during the next 5 days.
This system will move WNW through the Yucatan Channel tonight. The Southern half of the storm will continue to the West, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the bay of Campeche & SW GoM. The Northern half of the tropical wave will begin a turn to the North and merge with a trough moving East, through the NE Gulf waters, Friday – Sunday.
This wave remains embedded in an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting a large area to include Jamaica, Cuba and portions of Central America. Upper level winds will become more favorable for development after this system moves into the GoM at the end of the week.
Model Guidance is mostly in agreement and suggests that this system will take the turn to the north and head toward the Northern GoM. There are a few outliers taking this system toward Mexico.
Once this system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and moves into the GoM there will be a stronger consensus. If this system takes the Northerly Turn as many models suggest, areas along the Gulf Coast will need to follow this storm more closely.
For now, it is important to double check your Hurricane Supply Kit and make sure that you are prepared either way!
2) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a LPS (Low Pressure System) located just a few hundred miles SE of the Cape Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are and will continue to be Conducive for additional development during the next couple of days.
This system has a HIGH chance (60%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours. After that time, the storm will be moving into a rough environment which could limit development.
There remains a HIGH chance (60%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.