Thursday, August 15
There are Two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include one Tropical Cyclone.
1) Erin (Tropical Storm)
Tropical Storm Erin is located 245 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands and is centered at 15.0N & 27.5W. Max sustained winds are 40mph. Min central Pressure 1006mb (29.71") and the storm is moving WNW 9085) at 14mph.
Watches/Warnings - NONE
After satellite and data analysis, T.S. (Tropical Storm) Erin is showing a convective pattern that is continuing to evolve into one featuring more banding away from the center of circulation and much warmer cloud ops closer to the center. This is not something that we see often. However, it is not unheard of.
During the next couple of days, Erin will move through an environment that remains favorable for tropical development. The moist, low-shear environment with SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) that are warm gives Erin an environment that supports development. After a couple of days, this storm will move into SSTs that are warmer. However, the dry air and stable air mass will create an area that will support some weakening of the system.
So during the next several days, this storm will go through a "Roller Coaster" of conditions. In which, we will see the strengthening and weakening there of.
Model guidance shows a slight turn to the North as the storm gains some strength. And models are split. Normally this far out, they are close together. However, we are seeing some of the models bring this storm back out to sea during the next 5days or so. Meanwhile, others are bringing the storm well into the Western Atlantic without gaining much latitude at all. The track for Erin will depend heavily on whether or not we see the Ridge of High Pressure over the Atlantic Ocean weaken at all.
Erin is not expected to affect the LA, MS, AL, TX Gulf Coast, at this time.
2) Invest 92
a broad area of low pressure that is associated with a large/disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity is continuing to move over the Yucatan Peninsula, today. Development of this system does not look favorable while it remains over land. Friday, this system will move into the GoM (Gulf of Mexico). As it moves back out over warmer waters, the area of low pressure will be elongated and opened. This system will then move into the Central GoM where strengthening is forecast to take place. Over warmer waters with a more favorable wind flow, development (if any) will take place slowly.
This system has a MEDIUM chance (50%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours. It has a HIGH chance (60%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days.
A couple of different things may play out during the next couple of days.
1) The elongated Low that will be this system is going to split up. The southern half will stay on a West track and end up over Mexico. Meanwhile the Northern side of the low will split off and take a more Northerly track where it may see some development over the Central GoM before continuing North.
2) After entering the GoM this system could stay west and avoid the Central Gulf all together.
Models are split on this and forecasts look like they wont come together until one thing is for sure. Once this storm clears the Yucatan Peninsula and forms a closed LLC (Low Level Circulation). If this happens, it will not be until after the storm is completely in the GoM and no longer being affected by the land interaction of the Yucatan. This could happen as soon as Friday.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.