Tropical Activity In The Gulf of Mexico - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

Tropical Activity In The Gulf of Mexico

Posted: Updated:

Friday,August 16


There are Two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include oneTropical Cyclone.

1) Erin (Tropical Depression)
T.D.Erinis located 540miles West of the Cape Verde Island sand is centered at 16.9N& 32.1W. Max sustained winds are 35mph. Min central Pressure 1008mb (29.77") and the storm is moving WNW (295) at 17mph.

Watches/Warnings - NONE

After Satellite, Radar & Surface Observation analysis, this system continues to show signs of some weakening. The structure of Erin consists of a closed LLC (Low Level Circulation). This LLC is a swirl with only a few areas of deep convection South and East of the Center. For this Advisory, Erin has been downgraded to a T.D. (Tropical Depression) due to the weakening that has been observed early this morning and even over night.
This weakening is most likely due to cooler SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures). Erin will son move over warmer waters and into an environment that supports some development. This new environment will introduce less stable air, warmer waters, and continued low shear.
Some of the model guidance suggests that even more dry air and increased shear could reduce the strength of Erin even more. This storm could degenerate to a remnant low or an open trough during the next few days.
Erin will keep the WNW track for the next couple of days with very little variance in direction or speed. During the next 36 hrs, the storm could slow down some, in forward speed.
(This would be as a result of being influenced by a Subtropical Ridge to the North.)
Another weakness in the ridge could also result in a more NW turn during the next several days.
Erin could become a "Fish Storm" if it curves into the deep Atlantic, never making landfall

Erin is not expected to affect the LA, MS, AL, TX Gulf Coast, at this time.

2) Invest 92
Satellite images indicate that a broad/elongated area of Low Pressure has moved off-shore of the Yucatan peninsula and over the SW GoM (Gulf of Mexico). Although shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, limited and well to the East & NE of the center of circulation, this storm will continue to slowly move W& NW further into the central GoM. This change in location will only be beneficial to the development of this system.

There is a MEDIUM chance (50%) of this system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance (60%) of this low forming into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days.

During the next couple of days, we could see a number of different things take place.
As this system moves into the Central GoM, conditions will become favorable for development.
This broad area of cloudiness and scattered Showers& Tstorms covers the SE GoM and remains elongated. Now that it has cleared the Yucatan, organization can resume. The longer it remains over the Central GoM, the stronger it will get. Then Models are split on the further development of this system. Some suggest that it will meander to the West and eventually make landfall over Mexico. Other models suggest that this storm will pick up some steam and move North where it will affect the SE U.S. to include the Gulf Coast of East TX, LA, MS, & AL.

A couple of different things may play out during the next couple of days.
a) The elongated Low that will be this system is going to split up. The southern half will stay on a West track and end up over Mexico. Meanwhile the Northern side of the low will split off and take a more Northerly track where it may see some development over the Central GoM before continuing North.

b) After entering the GoM this system could stay west and avoid the Central Gulf all together.

Models are split on this and forecasts look like they wont come together until one thing is for sure. Once this storm moves further into the GoM and forms a closed LLC (Low Level Circulation). This could begin to take shape as soon as later on tonight.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.

For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.

Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger

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