The wave in the gulf is still having a difficult time. The upper level low over the eastern US is sharing a trough with wave in the gulf. This is not an ideal set up for a tropical system. Most of the wave's moisture is to the east of this trough, well displaced from the area of circulation, which is really having a difficult time staying organized itself. It's very hard to notice the area of location and being well away from the most convection, it is creating a skewed pattern as opposed to being vertically stacked, which is not good for the system. To the west of the trough is some dry air that the wave has been ingesting, which is never conducive for a tropical system. The system has a bout 48 hours to intensify before it hits land, which so far the models are becoming slightly more concentric, albeit still varied. The models are forecasting this system to overall make a landfall in Mexico, south of Texas. Heavy rain a few gusty winds will likely result from this system. Some of the moisture may be pulled to the NE increasing our chances of rain mid week, but only slightly. The National Hurricane Center has downgraded the chances of development into a tropical storm to only 10%.
Tropical Storm Erin is forecasted to die out in the middle of the Atlantic and is not expected to influence us here in CenLa.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux