The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet today despite the fact that we are well into the most active part of hurricane season. I see several tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin but none shows any promise for development. Two factors seem to be responsible for the current lull in activity. First, much of the main development region is being dominated by dry air. Second, wind shear remains significant across much of the Atlantic Basin, and this is not allowing convection to organize with any disturbance. None of our reliable computer models predict tropical cyclone development through Friday.
In the longer time frame, conditions in the Atlantic Basin are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclones as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to become active.
I'll update tomorrow.