THE TROPICS-DAY #88 - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

THE TROPICS-DAY #88

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It's the eighty-eighth day of the 2013 Atlantic Basin hurricane season and I still don't see anything to be concerned about over the next couple of days. However, I also see several factors coming together that promise a more active Tropical Atlantic during the next two weeks.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a 60-day cycle of enhanced tropical convection, is projected by forecast models to contribute to tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin through the first part of September.

A second factor is the parade of westward-moving disturbances from Africa into the far eastern Atlantic is becoming well-established. The atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic is moistening and that makes for a more favorable environment for tropical cyclone formation.

Finally, analysis of the Tropics indicates a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean. The CCKW is an eastward-moving disturbance which enhances upward motion in the atmosphere. This feature may aid in the development of African waves in the coming days.

The bottom line...I expect several named tropical cyclones to develop during the next two weeks. Stay tuned...

Tom Konvicka

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