In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there are a couple areas of interest that we are monitoring for further development in the Atlantic Basin.
After analysis of Satellite,Radar,Buoy Data & Dropsonde Data, there is an elongated, broad area of low pressure associated with a Tropical Wave that is extended from the Eastern Caribbean Sea, Across the Lesser Antilles and into the Western Tropical-Atlantic.
Cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms associated with this system remain disorganized with very little evidence of any LLC (Low Level Circulation).
Environmental conditions are NOT conducive for development. Though upper level winds have improved and are favorable, there is a lot of Dry Air moving in through the mid levels.
This system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a MEDIUMchance (50%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days as it moves WNW near 15mph.
Long-term, Model Guidance has this Tropical Wave moving to the WNW and approaching near or over Hispaniola. Most of the models are bringing this system around this same area. If this verifies and this system tracks over the major Caribbean islands, the high, mountainous terrain will further inhibit this system from significant development. Nevertheless, those with interests in the Caribbean should follow this system closely.
A Tropical wave (Located over the NW Caribbean Sea) is continuing to move to the WNW at about 10-15mph. This system will continue toward the Yucatan Peninsula through today. Tuesday, it will emerge into the Bay of Campeche. Days 2-4 (Tue-Thurs) we could see some development.
This system has a LOW chance (Near 0) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a LOW chance (20%) during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.