Wednesday, September 4
In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there are a few areas of interest that we are monitoring for further development in the Atlantic Basin.
After Satellite, Radar and Surface Obs analysis, there is an evident, broad area of low pressure centered about 200 mile SE of San Juan, Puerto Rico. This disturbance has become a little more concentrated and is contains significant convection. Environmental conditions have improved and now appear to be favorable for continued development. Further strengthening is expected before this system interacts with the chain of Islands that lays in its path. Hispaniola and Puerto Rico are within a short distance of this system.
This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance (40%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance (60%) during the next 5 days.
Whether or not this disturbance becomes a Tropical Cyclone, affected areas will see locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This includes the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next 48 hours
Model Guidance is suggesting that this system will continue to develop. The consensus is that it will begin to turn North and then NE well before it approaches the Atlantic Coast of Florida. In fact, the system will begin its re-curve into the Atlantic while approaching the Bahamas.
This is a very probable outcome. During the next couple of days, a weak front will continue to move off the East Coast. 97-L will most likely approach this front and be affected by the vertical shear of the front. This shear and Dry & cool air will inhibit further development. Models are suggesting that the system will begin to "Ride the Front" as it becomes enveloped into the front.
However, some of the models are suggesting that this system will not be effected by the approaching, weak front. Either way, we will have a better handle on this system after a significant LLC (Low Level Circulation) forms.
At this point, Invest 97-L does not look like it will make a significant impact on the Gulf Coast.
Other features in the Atlantic-Tropics
Disorganized cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and portions of the GoM (Gulf of Mexico) are associated with a Tropical Wave that continues to move to the West.
Development, if any, will be slow to occur.
This system has a LOW chance (20%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a continued LOW chance (20%) during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.