Thursday, September 5
There are three areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include one Tropical Cyclone.
Gabrielle (Tropical Depression)
T.D. Gabrielle is located 80 miles SSE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic and 105 miles WSW of Ponce, Puerto Rico. Gabrielle is centered at 17.5N & 68.1W. Max sustained winds are 35mph. Min central Pressure 1011mb (29.85") and the storm is moving NW (305) at 9mph.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo.
Interests in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the SE Bahamas and the Turks should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.
Just as quickly as this storm formed and was named, we will see Gabrielle continue to fizzle out during the next 24 hours (if that).
After Satellite, Radar & Surface Observation analysis, this system continues to show signs of some weakening. Gabrielle has become very disorganized. The LLC (Low Level Center) is poorly defined and located just South of the Mona passage and is more than 100 miles off from the mid-level center (between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This extremely disconnected structure may be somewhat caused by some westerly wind shear. None of the data suggests that T.S. force winds are occurring.
This means that only in a short time, this system is already showing signs of it beginning to break down.
Convection continues near the "Mid-level Center". So, there is still a chance of the Low-level center straightening out and reforming in that area. If that does not occur, Gabrielle is expected to continue weakening as it interacts with the terrain of the Dominican Republic and encounters increasing Westerly shear.
The revised intensity forecast is calling for a Remnant Low Pressure within 24 hours and complete dissipation, thereafter.
Right now the storm is moving to the NW around 9mph. If this storm continues to weaken, it will dissipate while still on this track as it encounters shear from the West & NW. If the remnant low can hang on for just a little while longer, it will turn to the NE and begin to track back into the Atlantic Ocean before it fizzles out.
Either way Model Guidance is taking this storm away from the U.S. Mainland and back out to sea (for the most part). A few of the models have the storm moving as far west as the Bahamas before turning NE.
There are a few outliers that keep this storm moving to the NW and over Cuba during the next couple of days. However, most everything is pointing to this system fizzling out here soon and the remnant Low turning the NE well before it reaches the Bahamas.
Other Features in the Atlantic Tropics
Disorganized cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms are becoming associated with a trough of low pressure as this disturbance continues to move West and toward the Gulf Coast of Mexico. This area of low pressure will move inland along the Mexican coast tomorrow (Friday).
This system has a MEDIUM chance (30%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a continued MEDIUM chance during the next 5 days.
A large are of disorganized convection (to include showers and thunderstorms) is associated with a surface trough that extends from the NE Leeward Islands, over the Atlantic waters for several hundred miles to the NE.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow, due to its proximity to T.D. Gabrielle and strong upper level winds.
This system has a LOW chance (20%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a continued LOW chance (20%) during the next 5 days as this system moves NW at 10-15mph.
Development is not expected after 48 hours.
There is a Tropical wave that is located about 450 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is associated with a broad area of low pressure and is showing some signs of organization. Development is expected to be limited and slow to occur. There is a lot of dry air moving into this system and environmental conditions during the next couple of days are not favorable for development.
This system is moving WNW at about 10mph.
This system has a LOW chance (<10%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours. And a continued LOW chance (<10%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days.
Keeping watch on the West Coast of Africa. A couple of Tropical Waves will be moving into the Atlantic Ocean and into an area that is conducive for possible development.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger