Friday, September 6
In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there are a few areas of interest that we are monitoring for further development in the Atlantic Basin.
(1) Invest 99-L
After Satellite, Radar and Surface Obs analysis, there is an evident, broad area of low pressure that is associated with a la large, disorganized cluster of Thunderstorms, showers and cloudiness. Some of the winds are near T.S. (Tropical Storm) Force.
This disturbance is making landfall and will move inland before much more development will occur. It is highly unlikely that we will see it become a Tropical Cyclone.
There is a LOW chance (20%) of this system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a continued LOW chance (20%) during the next 5 days.
A complex area of showers, thunderstorms and cloudiness (that also contains the remnants of Gabrielle) extends from the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, NE into the Atlantic for several hundred miles.
Any development of this system will be slow due to upper-level shear and dry air throughout the environment.
This system has a LOW chance (<10%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves NW/N 10-15mph.
There is a possibility that after some improvement in the environment ahead of this storm, we could see some development as the storm moves NE and into an area where conditions are conducive for possible development.
There is a MEDIUM chance (30%) of development during the next 5 days.
(3) Invest 98-L
An area of unorganized convection is associated with a Tropical Wave that we have been following for the last week as it makes its way across the Atlantic Tropics. This wave is located about 600 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands and is producing disorganized convection and shower activity.
Development of this system is not likely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
Therefore, this system has a LOW chance (near 0%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone During the next 48 hours.
The next couple of days, we will see this system move into an environment that could support some development. This system has a MEDIUM chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days.
There is a chain of Tropical Waves that is coming off the West coast of Africa during the next couple of days. Model Guidance suggests that a couple of these disturbances will have a MEDIUM chance for development. So, we will keep our eyes peeled and focused on all of these above mentioned systems and more.
Elsewhere, development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.