There are two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include one Tropical Cyclone.
T.S.Humbertois located 85miles SSE of the Cape Verde Islands and is centered at 13.6N& 24.1W.Max sustained winds are 45mph. Min central Pressure 1005mb (29.68")and the storm is moving West(280) at 12mph.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southern Cape Verde Islands to include:
Maio, Santiago, Fogo and Barava.
Early this morning, the NHC (National Hurricane Center- Miami, FL) upgraded T.D. (Tropical Depression) Nine to T.S. (Tropical Storm) Humberto. This storm is continuing to gain some strength as it is in an environment that does support development.
Humberto is not showing a highly organized set-up. The LLC (Low Level Circulation) is centered well to the East of strong convection (making this system a Left-handed storm).There is some ENE shear occurring right now that will begin to taper off during the next 12 hours or so. Otherwise, the environment around the Cape Verde Islands is sufficiently conducive for this system and will continue to support additional intensification for the next few days.
The intensity forecast does vary with just how strong this storm will become. Nevertheless, it looks as though Humberto will become our first Hurricane of the season.
There is also a strong Ridge of High Pressure that is anchored over the Azores. This ridge will recede for a couple of days and pull Humberto to a drastic turn to the North. (Tropical Cyclones will often ride the outer edge of a Ridge such as this one.)
Model guidance is in very good agreement for the first several days. With the exception of only a few outliers, the models are keeping the storm on a West track today and Tuesday. By Wednesday, the Ridge of High Pressure will begin to recede. High pressure will move back in to place after a couple of days and push the storm back into a Westerly projection.
The good news about Humberto is that this storm will most likely remain as a"FISH" storm and spend most of its life out at sea. However, the storm could keep a steady bearing and move across the Atlantic.
We will definitely know more as this storm develops and how its relationship with the above mentioned ridge of high pressure plays out.
Other Features in the Atlantic Tropics
There is an elongated area of Low Pressure that is associated with the remnants of Gabrielle. It is located about 500 miles SSW of Bermuda.
Strong upper-level, westerly winds are displacing shower and thunderstorm activity to the East of the low. Significant development is not expected during the next few days while this low moves NE or NNE.
This system has a LOW chance (20%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a continued LOW chance (20%) during the next 5 days.
Model guidance is suggesting that this storm will continue moving North or NE and will also remain out at sea for most of its life. This system could enter an environment that does support development. If this happens we could see some additional strengthening. However, the possibility of this happening remains low.
We are keeping our eyes open for potential development much closer to home but further down the road.
A broad are of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche or the extreme SW GoM (Gulf of Mexico) in only a few days. Several different models are suggesting that the surrounding environment will also become conducive for the support of development around the time that this Low will be forming.
There is a current LOW (0%) chance that a Tropical Cyclone will form out of this area during the next 48 hours and a MEDIUM chance (30%) during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger