There are three areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include TWO Tropical Cyclones.
T.S.Humbertois located 220miles West of the Cape Verde Islands and is centered at 14.6N& 27.7W.Max sustained winds are 65mph. Min central Pressure 998mb (29.47")and the storm is moving WNW(295) at 9mph.
After satellite analysis, Humberto's development has slowed down, for now. Some data is showing that the well defined center of circulation was trying to form an eye. However that progression has slowed down and deep convection is the theme throughout most of this system. As this storm is still undeveloped, we will see it cycle between development and lack there of. The storm is showing healthy flow as well as good convection throughout.
Model guidance is considerably in agreement with this storm. With only a few outliers, the consensus is that this storm will see a couple of dramatic direction changes. With only as much as a couple of days, a window for continued strengthening does exist. During the next 48 hours this system will move through an environment that supports development and strengthening. By Thursday (right before a major shift in the environment and a change in forward direction) we will see SSTs begin to change and vertical wind shear increase. This will begin to slow development down and possibly start to weaken the storm.
Humberto will continue to turn to the NW, later today as a High Pressure Ridge over the Azores begins to weaken. As this storm continues to move North (along the Western edge of the High) it will pick up some speed and could strengthen into a Cat1 hurricane as soon as later today or tonight.
This High Pressure is projected to build back in to place by Friday morning. This change in the environment will cause another shift in the storm's track. The forecast track turns to the West or WNW at this time.
T.S. Humberto is not expected to impact the Gulf Coast at this time.
Gabrielle (Tropical Storm)
T.S. Gabrielle is located 120miles South of Bermuda and is centered at 30.6N& 65.0W.Max sustained winds are 40mph. Min central Pressure 1008mb (29.77")and the storm is moving North (360) at 12mph.
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda
After looking at satellite data and surface obs, Gabriele continues to contain very cold cloud tops. Satellite imagery continues to suggest that the low level center of this storm is to the SW of deep convection.
A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Gabrielle this afternoon to provide more detailed information on the Strength and Center of this storm.
For now and during the next couple of days, the environment will remain somewhat favorable for development. After this time, SSTs will begin to fall and vertical shear will start to increase.
Gabrielle is not expected to strengthen much and should remain a T.S. until it begins to fizzle out. By day 5 the storm should be dissolved or absorbed.
During the next couple of days we will see a gradual turn the NW and a significant decrease in forward speed. By Thursday, the storm will turn back to the North and NNE and begin accelerating in forward speed.
This storm looks like it will be a "Fish" storm and stay out at sea. However, remnants of Gabrielle will affect the NE U.S. And parts of Canada before fizzling out.
Gabrielle is not expected to affect the Gulf Coast.
Other Features in the Atlantic Tropics
There is an elongated area of Low Pressure that is associated with a large area of convection weather, over the NW Caribbean sea. This disturbance is moving to the west around 10mph. By Thursday it will move across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. Over the Bay and Southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico) an area of Low Pressure is expected to form.
The environment over the Southern GoM will gradually become favorable for tropical development.
By the weekend a Tropical Depression may form from this disturbance.
Development, if any, will begin to take place once this area of convection and Low Pressure crosses the Yucatan and enters the Southern GoM.
This system has a LOW chance (<10%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance (60%) during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger