Tropical Development In The Southern Gulf of Mexico - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

Tropical Development In The Southern Gulf of Mexico

Posted: Updated:

Thursday,September12

11:20am

There are Four areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include TwoTropical Cyclones.

Humberto(Category 1)
Hurricane about 515 miles NW of the Cape Verde Islands and is centered at21.8N& 29.0W.Max sustained winds are 85mph. Min central Pressure 982mb (29.00") and the storm is moving North(360) at 15mph.

Watches/Warnings:
NONE

Humberto remains pretty organized with good outflow and a healthy look. There is some SW shear over the system. Nevertheless there is continued development and changes in the structure. Fore example, around the Center of Circulation, there is banding that is taking place. This feature is commonly associated with Tropical Cyclones and is normally evident of a storm trying to form an Eye/Eyewall. During the next couple of days, Humberto will continue to move into an environment that is not favorable for development. SSW shear and cool SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) will increase and will cause weakening over the next couple of days.
This combination of features will take its toll on Humberto. Though the Westward track will take Humberto over Warm waters, Shear is likely to mean strong. This set up will inhibit the storm from restrengthening.
In the long term, Humberto is expected to move to the North & NW for a day or two. Then a Ridge of High Pressure (that is anchored over the Azores) will build in, over the Atlantic Ocean. This action will push Humberto to the West. Toward days 4 and 5 we will see this high pressure begin to weaken. The weakening of the High Pressure will cause the storm to slow down a bit.

Model guidance is in good agreement and tends to pull the storm back to the NW on days 4 and 5 when the ridge of High Pressure begins to weaken. It looks like Humberto will stay out at sea and become a "Fish Storm" as it may never actually make landfall.

T.S. Humberto is not expected to impact the Gulf Coast at this time.



Gabrielle (Tropical Storm)
T.S. Gabrielle is located 200 miles NWof Bermuda and is centered at 33.9N& 67.7W.Max sustained winds are 40mph. Min central Pressure 1008mb (29.77")and the storm is moving North (350) at 8mph.

Watches/Warnings:
NONE

During the past several hours we have seen Gabrielle continue to produce deep convection. This T.S. Has started to redevelop. The presence of a curved convective band to the East of center. This T.S. is
embedded within an environment that contains heavy and strong shear. With the current set up, convection could taper off quickly. That is why the forecast has this storm hanging in there for only another day or so. Gabrielle will experience small fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 hours and could fizzle out before making landfall.There is a front that is coming off of the Eastern Seaboard. This front will force Gabrielle to the Right. This storm will "Ride" the front and experience a dramatic increase in forward speed.
Gabrielle is not expected to affect the Gulf Coast.


Other Features in the Atlantic Tropics

(3)Invest 93-L
Satellite, Radar and Surface data indicate that the area of low pressure that was crossing the Yucatan Peninsula has moved over the Southern Bay of Campeche. Convection, along with shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and it appears that the environmental conditions are in fact favorable for continued development. There is not much movement or organization with this area of interest. However, development appears to be occurring and should organize soon.
Model guidance is all over the place to start out. (This makes since and is nothing to worry about. As this disturbance continues to develop, it wont move much.) However, as the system gets more developed, models begin to come together and mostly agree that this system should move west and impact Mexico.

This disturbance has a HIGH chance (60%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and continued HIGH chance (80%) during the next 5 days.

This system will move very slowly to the West, across the southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico) and will produce locally heavy rains over much of the area.


Shower and thunderstorm activity that is associated with a broad area of Low Pressure that is centered about 500 miles East of the Leeward Islands and is displaying limited convection. Although surface pressures are falling significantly in the area, environmental conditions do not appear to be favorable for development.

This disturbance has a LOW chance (<10%) of becoming a Topical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a LOW chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days as it moves toward the WNW.

Upper-level winds could calm down and become a little more favorable during the next couple of days. Either way, development(if any)will be slow to occur.


For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.

http://www.kalb.com/category/187198/hurricane-center



~DEW
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger

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