There are Four areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include Two Tropical Storms, and One Tropical Depression.
T.S. Ingrid is located about 60miles ENE of Veracruz, Mexico & 175 miles SE of Tuxpan, Mexico and is centered at19.5N& 95.3W.Max sustained winds are 45mph. Min central Pressure 1000mb (29.53") and the storm is moving West(270) at 2mph.
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for;
Cotzacoalcos to Cabo Rojo
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for;
North of Cabo Rojo to La Pesca
Satellite, Radar and surface data indicates that this storm is continuing to develop as it remains near-stationary in the Bay of Campeche. As convection continues to increase and grow in size, this storm remains unorganized. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft reported that this disturbance has developed enough to upgrade this system to a Tropical Storm and give it a name, this morning.
There is a ridge of High Pressure that is over Texas that is hindering this storm from forward progression. Therefore this storm is meandering in the southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico) nearly stationary. After a current front fizzles out, this high will shift Eastward and Ingrid will begin to move to the North. The Min Central Pressure in Ingrid is quite low and there is a well defined LLC (Low Level Circulation) with healthy outflow, aloft.
The environment around Ingrid will change during the next couple of days, causing the vertical Shear to decrease around this storm
Therefore, it is likely that not only will we see this storm maintain its T.S. strength up to making landfall, Ingrid could in fact undergo even more development as it moves toward making a Mexican Gulf Coast landfall.
Model Guidance consensus is rather sloppy and varies due to the storm's current meandering in the Bay of Campeche. Eventually, all of the models turn the storm toward the Gulf Coast of Mexico and bring the storm Inland between 2-3 days.
T.S. Humberto is about 765miles NW of the Cape Verde Islands and is centered at24.7N& 31.3W.Max sustained winds are 65mph. Min Central Pressure 991mb (29.26") and the storm is moving WNW(300) at 17mph.
After Satellite analysis, all of the deep convection is separated from the LLC (Low Level Center) of circulation. This indicates that Humberto is fighting vertical shear. Shear is not good for Tropical Cyclones, in fact it will rip the storm a part. The current set up is certainly taking its toll on Humberto. The off-set circulation that we are seeing with this storm is leaving the center exposed and open to probable, continued weakening this weakening trend is expected to continue during the next couple of days as this storm faces increasing SW shear and marginal SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures). By the end of the weekend, Humberto will move back over warmer waters winch will do two things. We will see a decrease in vertical shear and some gradual restrengthening. By Monday we could actually see this storm redevelop and gain more strength, becoming a Hurricane again (this is only one of may outcomes possible).
This WNW track is expected to continue until days 4 & 5. By midweek, next week, we should seeHumberto take another turn to the North as it rides the outer edge of a ridge of high pressure that is anchored to the NE of this system.
T.S. Humberto is not expected to impact the Gulf Coast at this time.
Gabrielle (Tropical Depression)
T.S. Gabrielle is located 245miles SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts & 410 miles SSW of Halifax, Nova Scotia and is centered at 39.1N& 66.5W.Max sustained winds are 35mph. Min central Pressure 1007mb (29.74")and the storm is moving NNE(020) at 23mph.
This morning, Gabrielle continues to show signs of weakening throughout the entire storm Gabrielle has also accelerated considerably in forward speed. This change (among others) gives reason to believe the storm is not producing significant Northerly winds.
There is a LARGE area of convection that is continuing to maintain some structure. Because of this burst of convection, it is possible that there is some circulation remaining within this system.
Gabrielle doesn't have much time left. It is possible that this storm could hold it to together long enough to make a landfall on the Canadian coastline. However, I would not be surprised if this storm gets absorbed into a nearby/approaching cold front during the next 12 (or so) hours.
Gabrielle is not expected to affect the Gulf Coast.
Other Features in the Atlantic Tropics
An area of Low Pressure located about 350 miles East of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Although surface pressures are lower than normal, upper-level winds are not favorable for development.
This system is moving to the WW at about 10mph.
This system has a LOW chance (,10%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a LOW chance (20%) during the next 5 days.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger