Developing Disturbance in the Caribbean - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

Developing Disturbance in the Caribbean

Posted: Updated:

Tuesday,September17

11:45am

There are Two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include One tropical cyclones.

Ingrid(Remnants of)
Remnants of Ingrid are located about 50milesWest of Ciudad Victoria, Mexicoand are centered at23.7N& 99.9W.Max sustained winds are 25mph. Min central Pressure 1008mb (29.77") and the storm is moving West(270) at 5mph.

Watches/Warnings:
NONE

Satellite Images, Radar Data and Surface Observations indicate that Ingrid no longer has a well defined center of circulation and has become dissipated over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico.

Although deep convection continues over parts of Eastern Mexico, Data suggests that the center of circulation has been destroyed by the high mountains of Mexico.

Ingrid is considered to be dissipated and the NHC (National Hurricane Center) has stopped issuing advisories on this system.

Though Ingrid has dissipated, moisture is expected to linger over portions of Eastern Mexico for another couple of days and a prolonged potential for Heavy Rains, Flash Flooding and Mudslides exists across the area. Rainfall from the remnants of Ingrid is expected to produce 10-15 inches of rain over a large part of Eastern Mexico. Some isolated locations could receive event totals of 25 inches.
This means that affected areas could see life threatening flash floods, mud slides and other disasters of nature.

Remnants of Ingrid are not expected to make a significant impact on the U.S. Mainland.


Humberto (TropicalStorm)
T.S. Humberto isabout 1070WSW of the Azores and is centered at29.4N& 42.5W.Max sustained winds are 30mph. Min Central Pressure 1007mb (29.74") and the storm is moving North(010) at 10.

Watches/Warnings:
NONE

During the past 12 hours we have seen Humberto undergo some interesting evolution and is arguably more subtropical than tropical.
Overnight, the system was characterized by an exposed circulation with a large radius of maximum winds.
The surface center of circulation (that was the focus last night) dissipated this morning and a new circulation formed well to the North (closer to deep convection) directly underneath a an upper-level LOW. .
This upper-level LOW is forecast to move to the SE and away from Humberto during the next 12-24 hours and the current vertical structure of Humberto is not expected to persist.

In fact, It seems that the only reason that this storm is still considered a Tropical Cyclone is that it was upgraded only a few hours ago. To change it back now would only cause a lot of confusion.
Humberto continues to experience low vertical shear. However, this is expected to change with increasing NW shear after the next couple of days, then even more on days 3 & 4. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next several days. However this doesn't seep probable as another LPS (Low Pressure System) approaches from he West.

Model Guidance suggests that this storm will open up and fizzle out before the weekend hits. It is possible that this happens during the next 72 hours.

A turn to the NW and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. Then we will see a turn back to the North on Wednesday.
Humberto is not expected to affect the Gulf Coast.


Other Features in the Atlantic Tropics

(3)
A broad area of Low Pressure located over the Belise, the Southern Yucatan Peninsula and theNW Caribbean Sea . This disturbance is associated with a large area of cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms.
This low is forecast to move slowly toward the NW and emerge over the Bay of Campeche tonight or on Wednesday.

At this point, environmental conditions are expected to be a little more favorable for development during the next day or two.
This system will then drift toward the WNW over the SW GoM (Gulf of Mexico) for several days.
Environmental conditions will improve and become generally conducive for additional development.
This system has a MEDIUM chance 50% of becoming a Tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.

http://www.kalb.com/category/187198/hurricane-center



~DEW
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger

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