Thursday, September 19
There are Three areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include One tropical cyclone.
T.D. Humberto is about 985mi WSW of the Azores. WSW of the Azores and is centered at32.8N& 43.3W. Max sustained winds are 35mph. Min Central Pressure 1005mb (29.68") and the storm is moving NNE(025) at 6.
Humberto does not have much deep convection associated with it. In fact it barely meets the criteria necessary to remain categorized as a Tropical Cyclone. There is a lot of dry air present and Northerly shear (from an approaching system) is ripping this storm apart. If this pattern persists we will see Humberto begin to fizzle out during the next day or so (if not sooner). SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) are warm and the environment is somewhat favorable for development. However, the combination of dry air and shear is enough to start the process of breaking this storm down.
Most of the model guidance suggests that Humberto will be absorbed by an approaching system from the West. This looks like it will happen within the next day or so, as well.
Humberto will continue to move to the NE with a bit of a forward acceleration. Then this storm will be pulled up into the warm sector of the approaching system. This will choke Humberto out and the storm will become a remnant low before dissipation.
There is a broad area of Low Pressure located overtheSW GoM (Gulf of Mexico) and the coast of the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity Yucatan Peninsula is being watched. After Satellite, Radar and surface obs analysis, it seems that this system has slowed and become stationary in an environment that is favorable for development and will become conducive for the development of our next Tropical Depression during the next 48 hours.
This system has a HIGH chance (70% ) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance (80%) during the next 5 days.
model guidance diverges early and is taking this system all over the place.
Note of concern: some of the models take this system over Southern & Eastern Mexico causing even more extreme rainfall over already flooded areas. Some models agree and are bringing this storm to the North where it will affect the Gulf Coast of the United States.
A large area of cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms is located about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This area is associated with a frontal passage. Upper level wind are not set up for tropical development. However, an area of low pressure is forecast to form around this area during the next couple of days.
Model guidance suggests that this system could form some tropical characteristics during the next couple of days as it continues to move to the NE and over the Western Atlantic, early next week.
This system has a LOW chance (<10%) of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and a continued LOW chance (20%) during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger