Friday, September 20
In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there are a couple areas of interest that we are monitoring for further development in the Atlantic Basin.
After Satellite, Radar and Surface Obs analysis, there is an evident, area of low pressure that is over the SW GoM (Gulf of Mexico) about 90 miles East of Tampico, Mexico. Convection with this Tropical Wave is limited and not very active. There are showers and some thunderstorms with little organization at all. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for development and don't look like they will improve much at all as this system continues to move to the NW at 5-10mph.
This disturbance will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Eastern and Southern Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Hunter will investigate this area today.
There is a MEDIUM chance (30%) that this system will become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
A complex area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and cloudiness is located a few hundred miles South of Bermuda. This area is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Upper level winds are under the influence of some shear and not conducive for Tropical Development.
However this disturbance could acquire subtropical characteristics as it moves to the NE during the next couple of days. There will be a Northward turn over the western Atlantic through early next week.
This system has a LOW chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and a continued LOW chance during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.