Monday, September 30
There are two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include newly formed T.S. (Tropical Storm) Jerry.
T.S. Jerry is about 1200 miles ESE of Bermuda & 1325 miles WSW of the Azores and is centeredat27.0N& 45.7W. Max sustained winds are 40mph. Min Central Pressure 1008mb (29.77") and the storm is moving East(090) at 7mph.
T.D. (Tropical Depression) Eleven is displaying more persistent deep convection. Satellite Images indicate the at he low level center is near the western edge of the main area of convection. This cyclone is being upgraded to a Tropical Storm with this advisory.
During the next couple of days, Jerry will continue to be under the influence of some NW, vertical shear. This is not healthy for continued development. However, the environment will allow for some development during the next couple of days.
During the latter part of the forecast, model guidance begins to diverge. For this reason, wind speed forecasts are not extremely confident.
Model guidance continues to predict a strengthening ridge of high pressure to the NW and North of Jerry during the next several days.
This feature will become a more active controlling feature of the speed and direction of this storm.
In fact, the storm will decelerate and begin to move in a clockwise loop through the next several days.
Some guidance is suggesting that Jerry will NOT get picked up by the next trough that is approaching the storm and this outcome carries with it a good possibility.
There is a broad area of Low Pressure located a couple of hundred miles SSW of Jamaica and is accompanied by shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance remains disorganized.
Development, if any, will be slow to occur during the next few days as it moves to the NW, slowly.
This system has a LOW chance (<10%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours and a MEDIUM chance (30%) during the next 5 days.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Haiti and Jamaica, today. These conditions will likely spread across the Cayman Islands and Eastern Cuba through Tuesday
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger