There are Two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to include newly formed T.S. (Tropical Storm) Jerry.
T.S.Jerry is about 1300 miles East of Bermuda & 1170miles WSW of the Azores and is centeredat28.1N& 43.5W. Max sustained winds are 45mph. Min Central Pressure 1007mb (29.74") and the storm is stationary.
T.S. (Tropical Storm) Jerry has an exposed low level center. There is a small, disorganized area of deep convection that is located just East of the center. There is a large trough that will move toward the storm as it meanders in the North Atlantic. This approaching trough coupled with already existing shear will keep intensification slow to occur, if at all.
Jerry hasn't moved much this morning and is expected to slowly drift to the North during the next couple of days. As the storm slowly moves to the North it will gradually fall under the influence of the Higher-Latitude Westerlies. At this point Jerry will speed up in forward motion while being affected by increasing shear and cooler SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures).
T.S. Jerry is not expected to affect the Gulf Coast.
There is a broad area of Low Pressure located over the Central Caribbean Sea. This system has changed very in organization during the past couple of hours. As this disturbance moves NW at 10mph, some development is possible.
Environmental conditions are expected to improve and become somewhat favorable for development after this system moves into the Southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico), later this week.
There is a MEDIUM chance (30%) that this storm will become a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
There is a 50% chance that this disturbance will become a Tropical Cyclone during the net 5 days.
If named, this system will be Karen.
Model Guidance suggests that after moving into the GoM, this storm will take a Northerly turn and move toward the Northern GoM and could affect the Gulf Coast States.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger