As of early Wednesday Afternoon the NHC (National Hurricane Center of Miami, FL) has upgraded the probability of development for a disturbance in the Western Caribbean due to significant organization through the day.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE.
There are Two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to includeT.S. (Tropical Storm) Jerry.
T.S.Jerryisabout 1185miles East of WSW of the Azores & 1275 miles East of Bermuda and is centeredat28.2N& 43.9W. Max sustained winds are 40mph. Min Central Pressure 1009mb (29.80") and the storm is stationary.
T.S. (Tropical Storm)Jerry has an exposed low level center. Furthermore, convection is not extensive and mainly located to the East & NE of the center of circulation. As time advances, Jerry is losing some of its tropical characteristics. The storm hasn't moved much during the last several hours and is considered stationary.
As a cold front approaches the area, Jerry will begin to drift to the north. After a couple of days we will see Jerry begin to cross over cooling SST (Sea Surface Temperatures). Then this storm will pick up some speed and interact with increasing Vertical Wind Shear as it begins to ride the front.
Model Guidance indicates this storm will be a "Fish Storm" and never make landfall. It should dissipate during the next 5 days.
T.S. Jerry is not expected to affect the Gulf Coast.
There is a broad area of Low Pressure located over the NWCaribbean Sea that continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. As convection continues to increase and this cluster of activity begins to show signs of organization, we will see some possible development.
Later today this disturbance will move over the Yucatan and into the Southern GoM (Gulf of Mexico) later tonight or Thursday.
Some development is expected before this Yucatan landfall.
After emerging into the Gulf of Mexico this system will approach the Northern GoM and enter an area that is more conducive for development.
Leading into the weekend this storm could be approaching the TX, LA & MS Gulf Coast.
Most of the Model Guidance is at least bringing this storm up to a Tropical Storm Classification (in which case it would take the name Karen).
This system has a MEDIUM chance (40%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
This system has a continued MEDIUM chance (50%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger