Thursday, October 3
There are Two areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin to includeT.S. (Tropical Storm) Karen and T.D. (Tropical Depression) Jerry.
Karen (Tropical Storm)
T.S. Karen is about 40 miles NW of Cabo Catoche, Mexico and 500 miles South of the mouth of the Mississippi River and is now centered at 22.0N & 87.6W. Max sustained winds 60mph. Min Central Pressure 1004mb (29.65") and the storm is moving NNW (340) at 13mph.
Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.
from Grand Isle, LA eastward to Indian Pass, FL.
(This does not include Metropolitan New Orleans, LA, Lake Maurepas or Lake Pontchartrain.)
Tropical Storm Watch
from West of Grand Isle, LA to Morgan City, LA
Metropolitan New Orleans, LA
Note: Watches mean that conditions are expected during the next 48 hours.
Invest 97-L was upgraded this morning to T.S. (Tropical Storm) Karen. This morning a Hurricane Hunter that was investigating an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Strait, GoM (Gulf of Mexico) and Caribbean Sea. The Hurricane Hunters reported the discovery of a closed LLC (Low Level Circulation).
Most of the deep convection is located to the North & East of this LLC. This is due to a SW shear in the upper levels.
(Shear is bad for tropical development and assists in creating an environment that is not favorable for much strengthening.)
Though Karen will be moving over warm waters, this vertical Shear will be increasing during the next 2-3 days. This intensification is not healthy for tropical cyclones to develop. Therefore, the environment will only support gradual intensification during the next day or so. Any further development will be slow to occur.
At landfall, Karen should be near or at Cat.1 strength.
Because Karen was recently classified and a closed LLC has just formed, movement is hard to pinpoint.
Nevertheless, Karen is expected to gradually turn to the North (around the edge of a ridge of high pressure that extends over the Atlantic Coastline and over pars of the SE U.S.).
Model Guidance is fairly in agreement. The consensus is that Karen will keep on a NNW/North motion until it is impacted and begins to be absorbed by an approaching cold front (from the NW). Karen will then see an increase in speed and a NE turn as it "Rides the Front".
Most of the models agree with this point. However, there is a significant West/East spread in the tracks and point of landfall. Two of the most reliable models are included in the list of opposing outliers.
The point of landfall will depend heavily on the trimming of the approaching cold front, as the storm will Ride the Front once influenced by the Cold Core system.
If the front runs fast, then it will begin to affect Karen earlier and further out in the gulf. This will lead to a more East landfall.
If this front slows down Karen will move further North before its big turn. This will mean a more western landfall.
Keep in mind that a track farther East would likely result in a stronger storm. A Western track will make Karen weaker.
T.D.Jerryisabout 985miles WSW of the Azores and is centeredat30.2 N & 41.4 W. Max sustained winds are 35mph. Min Central Pressure 1010mb (29.83") and the storm is moving NE (050) at 9mph.
T.D. (Tropical Depression)Jerry is only showing limited deep convection. Jerry still as a well defined LLC (Low Level Circulation) and these "Puffs" of energy are occurring around this center.
Convection is struggling to remain active and develop. There is also a lot of dry air becoming entrained into the core of this system.
The storm is battling some strong WSW shear that continues to increase. This increasing shear coupled with much cooler waters is weakening the storm.
This storm will begin to open up into a trough as soon as within the next 48 hours. Jerry could become a remnant low much sooner than previously expected.
Model Guidance indicates this storm will be a "Fish Storm" and never make landfall. It should dissipate during the next 5 days.
T.S. Jerry is not expected to affect the Gulf Coast.
Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger