TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK-NOVEMBER 2013 - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK-NOVEMBER 2013

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We are in the last month of the 2013 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, so does that mean the season is over?

I think there is a good chance of seeing Melissa during the first half of the month. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of enhanced convection near the Equator that travels westward on a cycle of 30-60 days, will produce upward motion over the Atlantic Ocean during the first half of the month. This encourages tropical cyclone development. Also, wind shear is forecasted to be low over the Caribbean, and that increases the possibility of a named storm occurring.

By the middle and the latter portions of November, the MJO influence will no longer be available and wind shear will increase. These two factors point to a lower risk of tropical cyclone formation after the 15th of the month.

In conclusion, if a tropical cyclone forms during November, it would be most likely to happen in the Caribbean and during the first half of the month.

Tom Konvicka

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