Tropical Development is LIKELY in the Atlantic - KALB-TV News Channel 5 & CBS 2

Tropical Development is LIKELY in the Atlantic

Posted: Updated:
Monday, November 18

Tropical Storm Melissa has formed over the Atlantic Ocean. The below discussion and forecast is still valid.

Melissa will not impact the Gulf Coast or make any significant landfall as it will fizzle out during the next 5 days in open water.

More details on this system will follow.


Monday, November 18
In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, we are keeping an eye on one disturbance in the Northern Caribbean Sea.

There is a broad area of low pressure that is located about 740 miles ESE of Bermuda. This Low is currently a Non-Tropical LPS (Low Pressure System).
During the past several hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated near the well defined LLC (Low Level Center). Satellite and Surface Obs. data indicates that this system is producing Gale-force winds and environmental conditions are becoming conducive for continued development as this system moves to the North & NW at around 10 mph.

This system has a HIGH chance (90%) of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
As this system continues to develop during the next couple of days, an approaching cold front will begin to influence the LOW. Expect a North / NNE turn as the approaching front will take over the steering of this system. Regardless the strength that this storm increases to, this storm is not expected to affect the U.S. mainland to include the Gulf Coast.

Soon after, this system will continue to push into an area of much cooler SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures).

Elsewhere, no tropical development is expected during the next 5 days.

For a continued look into the tropics, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.

Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger

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