In the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, there is 1 area that we are watching for possible development during the next 48 hours.
Invest 93-L (Tropical Wave) A broad area of Low Pressure is located about 600 miles Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is producing a large area of shower & thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is associated with a Tropical Wave (embedded in the Monsoon trof) and has continued to slowly develop during the past 12 hours. It is now beginning to show signs of organization. Estimated sustained wind speeds are still light for a Tropical system and 850mb Vorticity (Tropical Spin) is not very strong and concentrated several hundred miles to the west of the most recent estimated center of this disturbance. Satellite data & Surface obs. indicate that the organization has become better defined. There is some dry air being drawn into the system, aloft (which is inhibiting convection & development). This system is moving into an area that has abundant moisture, aloft and some upper level diffluence. After this dry air is cut off, more rapid development will take place. During the next couple of days, this disturbance will move through an area in the Tropical-Atlantic Ocean that will be conducive for significant development. As this system moves generally West at around 15mph, it will continue to "Ride" the Southern edge of a broad ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. Ahead of this storm lies warm waters that have very little to no shear aloft and. This environment is primed for the development of this Tropical Wave.
Multiple forecast models are being run on this system and all of them show some development during the next 48 hours, along with the continued Westward track.
I will continue to monitor this system as it develops.
Tropical formation chance through 48 hrs... MEDIUM... 30% Tropical formation chance through 5 days... HIGH... 70%
Otherwise, there are no other Tropical Waves on the board and no other development is expected during the next 48 hours.
For a continued look into the tropics and preparedness tips, follow the link below to the First Alert Hurricane Center.